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Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth: Evidence from a panel of cross countries

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While earlier empirical studies found a negative saving effect of old-age dependency rates without considering longevity, recent studies have found that longevity has a positive effect on growth without considering old-age dependency rates. In this paper, we first justify the related yet independent roles of longevity and old-age dependency rates in determining saving and growth by using a growth model that encompasses both neoclassical and endogenous growth models as special cases. Using panel data from a recent World Bank data set, we then find that the longevity effect is positive and the dependency effect is negative in savings and investment regressions. The estimates indicate that the differences in the demographic variables across countries or over time can well explain the differences in aggregate savings rates. We also find that both population age structure and life expectancy are important contributing factors to growth.

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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia in its series MRG Discussion Paper Series with number 1106.

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Handle: RePEc:qld:uqmrg6:11

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Cited by:
  1. Johan Fourie, 2012. "The wealth of the Cape Colony: Measurements from probate inventories," Working Papers 268, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  2. Ghizlan Loumrhari, 2014. "Ageing, Longevity and Savings: The Case of Morocco," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 344-352.
  3. Rosa Aisa & Fernando Pueyo, 2013. "Population aging, health care, and growth: a comment on the effects of capital accumulation," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 1285-1301, October.
  4. Liu, Shenglong & Hu, Angang, 2013. "Demographic change and economic growth: Theory and evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 71-77.
  5. Michael Graff & Kam-Ki Tang & Jie Zhang, . "Demography, Financial Openness, National Savings and External Balance," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2008, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  6. Lau, Sau-Him Paul, 2014. "Fertility and mortality changes in an overlapping-generations model with realistic demography," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 512-521.
  7. Anikó Bíró, 2013. "Subjective mortality hazard shocks and the adjustment of consumption expenditures," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 1379-1408, October.
  8. John Janssen, 2002. "Long-term fiscal projections and their relationship with the intertemporal budget constraint: An application to New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/05, New Zealand Treasury.
  9. Åsa Johansson & Yvan Guillemette & Fabrice Murtin & David Turner & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Philip Bagnoli & Guillaume Bousquet & Francesca Spinelli, 2013. "Long-Term Growth Scenarios," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1000, OECD Publishing.
  10. Åsa Johansson & Yvan Guillemette & Fabrice Murtin & David Turner & Giuseppe Nicoletti & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Guillaume Bousquet & Francesca Spinelli, 2012. "Looking to 2060: Long-Term Global Growth Prospects: A Going for Growth Report," OECD Economic Policy Papers 3, OECD Publishing.
  11. Rosa Aísa & Fernando Pueyo & Marcos Sanso, 2012. "Life expectancy and labor supply of the elderly," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 545-568, January.
  12. Kam Ki Tang & Michael Graff & Jie Zhang, . "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies: An Unobserved Components Approach," MRG Discussion Paper Series 4111, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  13. Elwin Tobing, 2012. "Demography and cross-country differences in savings rates: a new approach and evidence," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 963-987, July.
  14. Marcos José Pérez Monteiro & Pedro Cavalcante Ferreira & Leandro Radusweski Quintal, 2014. "The Latin American Saving Gap," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 036, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  15. Oscar Iván AVILA MONTEALEGRE, 2010. "A model of longevity, human capital and growth," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 008851, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
  16. Loumrhari, Ghizlan, 2013. "Vieillissement démographique, longévité et épargne. Le cas du Maroc
    [Ageing population, longevity and save. The case of Morocco]
    ," MPRA Paper 50649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Aylit Tina Romm & Martha Wolny, 2012. "The Impact of Later Retirement Ages on Aggregate Household Savings and Saving Rates: An Analysis of OECD Countries," Working Papers 269, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  18. Hansen, Casper Worm, 2012. "The relation between wealth and health: Evidence from a world panel of countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 175-176.
  19. Kam-Ki Tang & Benjamin ShiJie Wong, . "The Ageing, Longevity and Crowding Out Effects on Private and Public Savings: Evidence from Dynamic Panel Analysis," MRG Discussion Paper Series 3409, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

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