This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Will Aging Baby Boomers Bust the Federal Budget?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Ronald Lee
Jonathan Skinner

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The authors analyze in three steps the influence of the projected mortality decline on the long-run finances of the Social Security System. First, mortality decline adds person years of life which are distributed across the life cycle. The interaction of this distribution with the age distribution of taxes minus benefits determines the steady state financial consequences of mortality decline. Second, examination of past mortality trends in the United State and of international trends in low mortality populations, suggests that mortality will decline much faster than foreseen by the SSA's forecasts. Third, based on work on stochastic demographic forecasting, stochastic forecasts of the system's actuarial balance are derived, indicating a broader range of demographic uncertainty than in the latest SSA forecasts, and a relatively greater contribution to uncertainty from fertility than mortality.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.e-jep.org/archive/1301/13010117.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members.

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal Journal of Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): 13 (1999)
Issue (Month): 1 (Winter)
Pages: 117-140
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:13:y:1999:i:1:p:117-140

Contact details of provider:
Email:
Web page: http://www.aeaweb.org/jep/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.aeaweb.org/subscribe.html

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
  1. Richard Disney & Robert Palacios & Edward Whitehouse, 1999. "Individual choice of pension arrangement as a pension reform strategy," IFS Working Papers W99/18, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  2. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1999. "Economic Costs of Population Aging," Department of Economics Working Papers 1999-02, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Martin S. Feldstein & Elena Ranguelova, 2002. "The Economics of Bequests in Pensions and Social Security," NBER Chapters, in: The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform, pages 371-400 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Disney, Richard & Whitehouse, Edward, 1992. "The personal pensions stampede," MPRA Paper 10476, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Frank T. Denton & Byron G. Spencer, 1999. "Population Aging and Its Costs: A Survey of the Issues and Evidence," Department of Economics Working Papers 1999-03, McMaster University. [Downloadable!]
  6. Joseph J. Doyle, Jr., 2007. "Returns to Local-Area Health Care Spending: Using Health Shocks to Patients Far From Home," NBER Working Papers 13301, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Richard A. Easterlin, 2000. "The Worldwide Standard of Living since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 7-26, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Alan D. Viard, 1999. "The new budget outlook: policymakers respond to the surplus," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 2-15. [Downloadable!]
  9. Whitehouse, Edward, 2000. "Pension reform, financial literacy and public information: a case study of the United Kingdom," MPRA Paper 10323, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  10. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise M. Sheiner, 2000. "Should America Save for Its Old Age? Fiscal Policy, Population Aging, and National Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 57-74, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Eric M. Engen & William G. Gale & Cori Uccello, 2004. "Lifetime Earnings, Social Security Benefits, And The Adequacy Of Retirement Wealth Accumulation," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-10, Center for Retirement Research. [Downloadable!]
  12. John Stephenson & Grant Scobie, 2002. "The Economics of Population Ageing," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/04, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  13. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise M. Sheiner, 2000. "Should America save for its old age? Population aging, national saving, and fiscal policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  14. Hongbin Li & Junsen Zhang & Jie Zhang, . "Effects of longevity and dependency rates on saving and growth: Evidence from a panel of cross countries," MRG Discussion Paper Series 1106, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Jonathan Skinner & John Wennberg, 2000. "Regional Inequality in Medicare Spending: The Key to Medicare Reform?," Forum for Health Economics & Policy, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 3(1), pages 1017-1017. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? About five million pdf files are downloaded through RePEc every year.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-16.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.