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Demographic transition and economic growth in China, India and Pakistan

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  • Choudhry, Misbah T.
  • Elhorst, J. Paul

Abstract

The authors of this paper adopt a Solow-Swan model extended to include demographic variables to analyze the overall effect of demographic transition on economic growth. The results, based on data from seventy countries over the period 1961-2003, reveal that GDP per capita growth is positively related to the growth differential between the working-age population and the total population, and negatively related to child and old-age dependency ratios. Based on these results, they find that population dynamics explain 46 percent of economic growth in per capita GDP in China over the period 1961-2003, 39 percent in India, and 25 percent in Pakistan. Furthermore, population dynamics are expected to have a positive effect on economic growth in India and Pakistan over the period 2005-2050, and a negative effect in China.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Systems.

Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 218-236

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:34:y:2010:i:3:p:218-236

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Keywords: Demographic transition Population distribution Dependency burden;

References

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  1. Robert J. Barro, 1996. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," NBER Working Papers 5698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Valli Vittorio & Saccone Donatella, 2011. "Economic development and population growth: an inverted-U shaped curve?," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201105, University of Turin.
  2. Bjorvatn, Kjetil & Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2013. "Demographic Transition in Resource Rich Countries: A Blessing or a Curse?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 337-351.
  3. Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2011. "China and India: Openness, Trade and Effects on Economic Growth," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 8(1), pages 129-154, June.

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