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The Role of Fertility and Population in Economic Growth: Empirical ResultsFrom Aggregate Cross-National Data

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James A. Brander
Steve Dowrick

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Abstract

Two recently improved sets of cross-country panel data are combined in order to re-examine the effects of population growth and fertility on economic growth. Using a 107 country panel data set covering 1960-85, we find that high birth rates appear to reduce economic growth through investment effects and possibly through "capital dilution", although classic resource dilution is not evident in the data. Most significantly, however, birth rate declines have a strong medium-term positive impact on per capita income growth through labour supply or "dependency" effects.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4270.

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Date of creation: Feb 1993
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Publication status: published as Journal of Population Economics, (February 1994)
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4270

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O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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  1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. James A. Brander, 1992. "Comparative Economic Growth: Evidence and Interpretation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(4), pages 792-818, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Hazledine, Tim & Moreland, R Scott, 1977. "Population and Economic Growth: A World Cross-Section Study," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(3), pages 253-63, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Samuelson, Paul A, 1984. "Second Thoughts on Analytical Income Comparisons," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 267-78, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Leff, Nathaniel H, 1969. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 886-96, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Brander, J.A. & Dowrick, S., 1990. "The Role Of Fertility And Population In Economic Growth: New Results From Aggregate Cross-National Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 230, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University.
  8. Kelley, Allen C, 1988. "Economic Consequences of Population Change in the Third World," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 1685-1728, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Beggs, John J, 1988. "Diagnostic Testing in Applied Econometrics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(185), pages 81-101, June.
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Brantley Liddle, 2003. "Developing country growth collapse revisited: demographic influences and regional differences," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-007, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Raouf, BOUCEKKINE & Bity, DIENE & Théophile, AZOMAHOU, 2007. "A closer look at the relationship between life expectancy and economic growth," Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques Working Paper 2007043, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Martin Werding, 2008. "Ageing and Productivity Growth: Are there Macro-level Cohort Effects of Human Capital?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  4. Malmberg, Bo & Lindh, Thomas, 2004. "Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050," Arbetsrapport 2004:7, Institute for Futures Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Pia N. Malaney, 1999. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," CID Working Papers 15, Center for International Development at Harvard University. [Downloadable!]
  6. John Bryant, 2003. "Demographic Change and New Zealand’s Economic Growth," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/04, New Zealand Treasury. [Downloadable!]
  7. Björn Andersson, 2001. "Scandinavian Evidence on Growth and Age Structure," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 377-390, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. David E. Bloom & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," NBER Working Papers 6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Persson, Joakim, 1999. "Demographic and Per Capita Income Dynamics: A Convergence Study on Demographics, Human Capital, and Per Capita Income for the US States," Working Paper Series 156, Trade Union Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  10. Alan M. Taylor, 1994. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 4892, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Roberto Cellini & Antonello Scorcu, 1995. "How many Italies?," Working Papers 215, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Università di Bologna. [Downloadable!]
  12. Hernando Zuleta, 2004. "A Note on Scale Effects," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(1), pages 237-242, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Alan M. Taylor, 1995. "Growth and Convergence in the Asia-Pacific Region: On the Role of Openness, Trade and Migration," NBER Working Papers 5276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Tapas K., MISHRA, 2004. "The Role of Components of Demographic Change in Economic Development : Whither the Trend ?," Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) Discussion Paper 2004023, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
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