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The Role of Fertility and Population in Economic Growth: Empirical Results from Aggregate Cross-National Data

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  • Brander, James A
  • Dowrick, Steve

Abstract

Two recently improved sets of cross-country panel data are combined in order to re-examine the effects of population growth and fertility on economic growth. Using a 107 country panel data set covering 1960-85, we find that high birthrates appear to reduce economic growth through investment effects and possibly through "capital dilution," although classic resource dilution is not evident in the data. Most significantly, however, birthrate declines have a strong medium-term positive impact on per capita income growth through labour supply or "dependency" effects.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Population Economics.

Volume (Year): 7 (1994)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 1-25

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Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:7:y:1994:i:1:p:1-25

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  1. James A. Brander, 1992. "Comparative Economic Growth: Evidence and Interpretation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(4), pages 792-818, November.
  2. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December.
  3. Samuelson, Paul A, 1984. "Second Thoughts on Analytical Income Comparisons," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 94(374), pages 267-78, June.
  4. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
  5. Leff, Nathaniel H, 1969. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 886-96, December.
  6. Beggs, John J, 1988. "Diagnostic Testing in Applied Econometrics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(185), pages 81-101, June.
  7. Hazledine, Tim & Moreland, R Scott, 1977. "Population and Economic Growth: A World Cross-Section Study," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 59(3), pages 253-63, August.
  8. Johnson, D. Gale, 1999. "Population and economic development," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16.
  9. Dowrick, Steve & Gemmell, Norman, 1991. "Industrialisation, Catching Up and Economic Growth: A Comparative Study across the World's Capitalist Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 263-75, March.
  10. Kelley, Allen C, 1988. "Economic Consequences of Population Change in the Third World," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 1685-1728, December.
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