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Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia

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Author Info
David E. Bloom
David Canning
Pia N. Malaney

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Abstract

This paper examines the links between demographic change and economic growth in Asia during 1965-90. We show that the overall rate of population growth had little effect on economic growth, but that changes in life expectancy, age structure, and population density have had a significant impact on growth rates. We also find strong evidence of feedback from higher income to population change via lower fertility, though a significant component of the demographic changes appears to have been exogenous. Our results suggest that the demographic transition can act both as a catalyst and as an accelerator mechanism, and that demographic effects can explain most of East Asia’s economic "miracle". East Asia benefited from a "virtuous spiral" of income growth and fertility decline, while South Asia seems to remain caught in a low-level population-income trap.

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Paper provided by Center for International Development at Harvard University in its series CID Working Papers with number 15.

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Date of creation: May 1999
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Handle: RePEc:wop:cidhav:15

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Bloom, David & Canning, David, 2006. "Global Demography: Fact, Force and Future," MPRA Paper 2577, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance," NBER Working Papers 10817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Diaz-Bautista, Alejandro, 2002. "The role of telecommunications infrastructure and human capital: Mexico´s economic growth and convergence," ERSA conference papers ersa02p102, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  4. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Guenther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Does Age Structure Forecast Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 13221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Stephan Klasen & Thorsten Nestmann, 2004. "Population, Population Density, and Technological Change," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2002. "Sind die Probleme der Bevölkerungsalterung durch eine höhere Geburtenrate lösbar?," MEA discussion paper series 02025, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Aging (MEA), University of Mannheim. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Eric Neumayer & Matthew A. Cole, 2003. "The Impact of Poor Health on Total Factor Productivity," HEW 0312001, EconWPA, revised 02 Nov 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Rafael Gómez & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2006. "The importance of being mature: the effect of demographic maturation on global per-capita income," Banco de España Occasional Papers 0604, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  9. François Combarnous, 2003. "Le développement de l'humain comme préalable au développement économique : l'apport de l'analyse en composantes principales," Documents de travail 84, Centre d'Economie du Développement de l'Université Montesquieu Bordeaux IV. [Downloadable!]
  10. Lindh, Thomas, 1999. "Medium-Term Forecasts of Potential GDP and Inflation Using Age Structure Information," Working Paper Series 99, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Barry Bosworth & Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2007. "Saving and Demographic Change: The Global Dimension," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2007-02, Center for Retirement Research, revised Feb 2007. [Downloadable!]
  12. Rafael Gómez & Pablo Hernández de Cos, 2006. "The importance of being mature - the effect of demographic maturation on global per-capita GDP," Working Paper Series 670, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  13. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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