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Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia

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Author Info
David E. BLOOM
Jocelyn E. FINLAY

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Abstract

Trade openness, high savings rates, human capital accumulation, and macroeconomic policy only accounted for part of the 1965-1990 growth performance in East Asia. Subsequently, demographic change was shown to be a missing factor in explaining the East Asian growth premium. Since 1990, East Asia has undertaken major economic reforms in response to financial crises and other factors. We reexamine the role of the demographic transition in contributing to cross-country differences in economic growth through to 2005, with a particular focus on East Asia. We highlight the need for policy to offset potential negative effects of aging populations in the future. Copyright (c) 2009 The Authors. Journal Compilation (c) 2009 Japan Center for Economic Research.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1748-3131.2009.01106.x
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Japan Center for Economic Research in its journal Asian Economic Policy Review.

Volume (Year): 4 (2009)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 45-64
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Handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:4:y:2009:i:1:p:45-64

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1832-8105

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
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  2. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2007. "Fertility, Female Labor Force Participation, and the Demographic Dividend," NBER Working Papers 13583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance," NBER Working Papers 10817, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Kim Jong-Il & Lau Lawrence J., 1994. "The Sources of Economic Growth of the East Asian Newly Industrialized Countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 235-271, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Pia N. Malaney, 1999. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," CID Working Papers 15, Center for International Development at Harvard University. [Downloadable!]
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  7. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2008. "Demographic Change, Institutional Settings, and Labor Supply," PGDA Working Papers 4208, Program on the Global Demography of Aging. [Downloadable!]
  8. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Mansfield, Richard K. & Moore, Michael, 2007. "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 92-114, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1996. "Some Lessons from the East Asian Miracle," World Bank Research Observer, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 151-77, August.
  12. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn Finlay, 2008. "Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia," PGDA Working Papers 4008, Program on the Global Demography of Aging. [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2003. "Contraception and the Celtic Tiger," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 229–247. [Downloadable!]
  2. Barry P. Bosworth & Ralph C. Bryant & Gary Burtless, 2004. "The Impact of Aging on Financial Markets and the Economy: A Survey," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College 2004-23, Center for Retirement Research. [Downloadable!]
  3. Dholakia Ravindra H., 2008. "Inter-relationship between Economic Growth, Savings and Inflation in Asia," IIMA Working Papers 2008-07-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department. [Downloadable!]
  4. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2005. "Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance," PGDA Working Papers 0105, Program on the Global Demography of Aging. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Artelaris, Panagiotis & Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George, 2006. "Theoretical and Methodological Study on Dynamic Growth Regions and Factors Explaining their Growth Performance," Papers DYNREG02, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI). [Downloadable!]
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