Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India

Contents:

Author Info

  • Bloom, David E.
  • Canning, David
  • Hu, Linlin
  • Liu, Yuanli
  • Mahal, Ajay
  • Yip, Winnie

Abstract

We find that a cross-country model of economic growth successfully tracks the growth takeoffs in China and India. The major drivers of the predicted takeoffs are improved health, increased openness to trade, and a rising labor force-to-population ratio due to fertility decline. We also explore the effect of the reallocation of labor from low-productivity agriculture to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors. Including the money value of longevity improvements in a measure of full-income reduces the gap between the magnitude of China's takeoff relative to India's due to the relative stagnation in life expectancy in China since 1980.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6WHV-4XNN5H7-1/2/9715ca42f61005df15913170d77dfc55
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Comparative Economics.

Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 17-33

as in new window
Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:38:y:2010:i:1:p:17-33

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622864

Related research

Keywords: Economic growth Reallocation of labor Full income China India;

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-63, July.
  2. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2007. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," NBER Working Papers 12943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. William Lavely & Ronald Freedman, 1990. "The Origins of the Chinese Fertility Decline," Demography, Springer, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 357-367, August.
  4. Young, Alwyn, 1994. "Lessons from the East Asian NICS: A contrarian view," European Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 964-973, April.
  5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1993. "Making a Miracle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 61(2), pages 251-72, March.
  6. David Bloom & David Canning & Rick Mansfield & Michael Moore, 2006. "Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings," PGDA Working Papers, Program on the Global Demography of Aging 1906, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  7. Easterly, William & Kremer, Michael & Pritchett, Lant & Summers, Lawrence H., 1993. "Good policy or good luck?: Country growth performance and temporary shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 459-483, December.
  8. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
  9. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James Robinson, 2003. "Disease and Development in Historical Perspective," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 1(2-3), pages 397-405, 04/05.
  10. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64.
  11. Shenggen Fan & Xiaobo Zhang & Sherman Robinson, 2003. "Structural Change and Economic Growth in China," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 360-377, 08.
  12. Chen, Baizhu & Feng, Yi, 2000. "Determinants of economic growth in China: Private enterprise, education, and openness," China Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15.
  13. Richard Hemming & Woosik Chu & Charles Collyns & Karen Elizabeth Parker & Ajai Chopra & Oliver Fratzscher, 1995. "India," IMF Occasional Papers, International Monetary Fund 134, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," NBER Working Papers 10152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Sylvie DEMURGER & SACHS & Wing Thye WOO & BAO & CHANG & MELLINGER, 2001. "Geography, Economic Policy and Regional Development in China," Working Papers, CERDI 200109, CERDI.
  16. Dudley Poston & Baochang Gu, 1987. "Socioeconomic development, family planning, and fertility in China," Demography, Springer, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 531-551, November.
  17. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Pia N. Malaney, 1999. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," CID Working Papers, Center for International Development at Harvard University 15, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  18. Wing Thye Woo, . "Chinese Economic Growth: Sources And Prospects," Department of Economics, California Davis - Department of Economics 96-08, California Davis - Department of Economics.
  19. David E. Bloom & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," NBER Working Papers 6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
  21. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Sevilla, Jaypee, 2004. "The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: A Production Function Approach," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 1-13, January.
  22. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore, 2007. "A Theory of Retirement," NBER Working Papers 13630, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
  24. Rajkumar, Andrew Sunil & Swaroop, Vinaya, 2008. "Public spending and outcomes: Does governance matter?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 96-111, April.
  25. Ricardo Hausmann & Lant Pritchett & Dani Rodrik, 2005. "Growth Accelerations," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 303-329, December.
  26. Rodrik, Dani & Subramanian, Arvind, 2004. "From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge: The Mystery of the Indian Growth Transition," Working Paper Series, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government rwp04-013, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  27. Alan Krueger & Mikael Lindahl, 2000. "Education for Growth: Why and For Whom?," Working Papers, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section. 808, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  28. Sachs, J-D & Warner, A-M, 1996. "Sources of Slow Growth in African Economies," Papers, Harvard - Institute for International Development 545, Harvard - Institute for International Development.
  29. Gallup, J.L. & Sachs, J.D. & Mullinger, A., 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," Papers, Chicago - Graduate School of Business 1, Chicago - Graduate School of Business.
  30. Bloom, David E & Canning, David & Sevilla, Jaypee, 2003. " Geography and Poverty Traps," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 355-78, December.
  31. Yan Wang & Yudong Yao, 2001. "Sources of China's economic growth, 1952-99 : incorporating human capital accumulation," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 2650, The World Bank.
  32. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life-cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, 09.
  33. Fogel, Robert W., 1993. "Economic Growth, Population Theory, and Physiology: The Bearing of Long-Term Processes on the Making of Economic Policy," Nobel Prize in Economics documents, Nobel Prize Committee 1993-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
  34. Peter Lorentzen & John McMillan & Romain Wacziarg, 2008. "Death and development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 81-124, June.
  35. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2007. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 925-985, December.
  36. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Mellinger, 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," CID Working Papers, Center for International Development at Harvard University 1, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  37. Gary S. Becker & Tomas J. Philipson & Rodrigo R. Soares, 2005. "The Quantity and Quality of Life and the Evolution of World Inequality," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 277-291, March.
  38. George Psacharopoulos & Harry Anthony Patrinos, 2004. "Returns to investment in education: a further update," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 111-134.
  39. Krasker, William S. & Kuh, Edwin & Welsch, Roy E., 1983. "Estimation for dirty data and flawed models," Handbook of Econometrics, Elsevier, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 11, pages 651-698 Elsevier.
  40. Young, Alwyn, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-80, August.
  41. Stephen Knack & Philip Keefer, 1995. "Institutions And Economic Performance: Cross-Country Tests Using Alternative Institutional Measures," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(3), pages 207-227, November.
  42. Marcella Alsan & David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "The Effect of Population Health on Foreign Direct Investment," NBER Working Papers 10596, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Canning, D. & Amaral, L. A. N. & Lee, Y. & Meyer, M. & Stanley, H. E., 1998. "Scaling the volatility of GDP growth rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 335-341, September.
  44. Sachs, J.D. & Woo, W.T., 1994. "Structural Factors in the Economic Reforms of China, Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union," Papers, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs 94-01, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
  45. David E. Bloom & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "Geography, Demography, and Economic Growth in Africa," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 207-296.
  46. Bhargava, Alok & Jamison, Dean T. & Lau, Lawrence J. & Murray, Christopher J. L., 2001. "Modeling the effects of health on economic growth," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 423-440, May.
  47. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2003. "Contraception and the Celtic Tiger," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 229–247.
  48. Cai, Fang & Wang, Dewen & Du, Yang, 2002. "Regional disparity and economic growth in China: The impact of labor market distortions," China Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 197-212.
  49. Dani Rodrik & Arvind Subramanian, 2004. "From "Hindu Growth" to Productivity Surge," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 04/77, International Monetary Fund.
  50. Summers, Robert & Heston, Alan, 1991. "The Penn World Table (Mark 5): An Expanded Set of International Comparisons, 1950-1988," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 327-68, May.
  51. Robert W. Fogel, 2004. "High Performing Asian Economies," NBER Working Papers 10752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Arokiasamy Perianayagam & Srinivas Goli, 2012. "Provisional results of the 2011 Census of India: Slowdown in growth, ascent in literacy, but more missing girls," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(10), pages 785-801, August.
  2. David E. Bloom, 2011. "Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth," PGDA Working Papers, Program on the Global Demography of Aging 6511, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  3. Marga Peeters & Loek Groot, 2012. "A Global View On Demographic Pressure And Labour Market Participation," Journal of Global Economy, Research Centre for Social Sciences,Mumbai, India, Research Centre for Social Sciences,Mumbai, India, vol. 8(2), pages 165-194, June.
  4. Seema Narayan & Paresh Kumar Narayan & Sagarika Mishra, 2010. "Investigating the Relationship between Health and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from a Panel of 5 Asian Countries," Economics Series 2010_08, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  5. David E. Bloom & Elizabeth T. Cafiero & Mark E. McGovern & Klaus Prettner & Anderson Stanciole & Jonathan Weiss & Samuel Bakkila & Larry Rosenberg, 2013. "The Economic Impact of Non-Communicable Disease in China and India: Estimates, Projections, and Comparisons," NBER Working Papers 19335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:38:y:2010:i:1:p:17-33. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.