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High Performing Asian Economies

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  • Robert W. Fogel

Abstract

To American and European economists in 1945, the countries of Asia were unpromising candidates for high economic growth. In 1950 even the most prosperous of these countries had a per capita income less than 25 percent of that of the United States. Between the mid-1960s and the end of the twentieth century, however, many of the countries of South and Southeast Asia experienced vigorous economic growth, some with growth rates far exceeding the previous growth rates of the industrialized countries. Forecasts that the region's population growth would outstrip its capacity to feed itself, and that its economic growth would falter, proved to be incorrect. Growth rates will probably continue at high levels in Southeast Asia for at least another generation. This forecast is based on 4 factors: the trend toward rising labor force participation rates, the shift from low to high productivity sectors, continued increases in the educational level of the labor force, and other improvements in the quality of output that are at present not accurately measured in national income accounts.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10752.

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Date of creation: Sep 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10752

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  1. Clark, Colin, 1976. "Economic Development in Communist China," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 239-64, April.
  2. Healey, Derek T, 1972. "Development Policy: New Thinking About an Interpretation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 757-97, September.
  3. Robert W. Fogel, 2003. "Forecasting The Demand For Health Care In Oecd Nations And China," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(1), pages 1-10, 01.
  4. S. Chandrasekhar, 1968. "How India is tackling her population problem," Demography, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 642-650, June.
  5. Bhagwati, Jagdish N & Chakravarty, Sukhamoy, 1969. "Contributions to Indian Economic Analysis: A Survey," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(4), pages 2-73, Part II S.
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Cited by:
  1. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Hu, Linlin & Liu, Yuanli & Mahal, Ajay & Yip, Winnie, 2010. "The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 17-33, March.
  2. Robert W. Fogel, 2006. "Why China is Likely to Achieve its Growth Objectives," NBER Working Papers 12122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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