To American and European economists in 1945, the countries of Asia were unpromising candidates for high economic growth. In 1950 even the most prosperous of these countries had a per capita income less than 25 percent of that of the United States. Between the mid-1960s and the end of the twentieth century, however, many of the countries of South and Southeast Asia experienced vigorous economic growth, some with growth rates far exceeding the previous growth rates of the industrialized countries. Forecasts that the region's population growth would outstrip its capacity to feed itself, and that its economic growth would falter, proved to be incorrect. Growth rates will probably continue at high levels in Southeast Asia for at least another generation. This forecast is based on 4 factors: the trend toward rising labor force participation rates, the shift from low to high productivity sectors, continued increases in the educational level of the labor force, and other improvements in the quality of output that are at present not accurately measured in national income accounts.
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number
10752.
Length: Date of creation: Sep 2004 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10752
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Find related papers by JEL classification: J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Production N3 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Income, and Wealth O10 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
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