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High Performing Asian Economies

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  • Robert W. Fogel

Abstract

To American and European economists in 1945, the countries of Asia were unpromising candidates for high economic growth. In 1950 even the most prosperous of these countries had a per capita income less than 25 percent of that of the United States. Between the mid-1960s and the end of the twentieth century, however, many of the countries of South and Southeast Asia experienced vigorous economic growth, some with growth rates far exceeding the previous growth rates of the industrialized countries. Forecasts that the region's population growth would outstrip its capacity to feed itself, and that its economic growth would falter, proved to be incorrect. Growth rates will probably continue at high levels in Southeast Asia for at least another generation. This forecast is based on 4 factors: the trend toward rising labor force participation rates, the shift from low to high productivity sectors, continued increases in the educational level of the labor force, and other improvements in the quality of output that are at present not accurately measured in national income accounts.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10752.

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Date of creation: Sep 2004
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Publication status: published as Dong, Xiao-Yuan, Shunfeng Song, and Xiaobo Zhang (eds.) China's Agricultural Development: Challenges and ProspectsChinese Economy Series. Aldershot, U.K. and Burlington, Vt: Ashgate, 2006.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10752

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  1. Healey, Derek T, 1972. "Development Policy: New Thinking About an Interpretation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 757-97, September.
  2. Clark, Colin, 1976. "Economic Development in Communist China," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(2), pages 239-64, April.
  3. Bhagwati, Jagdish N & Chakravarty, Sukhamoy, 1969. "Contributions to Indian Economic Analysis: A Survey," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(4), pages 2-73, Part II S.
  4. S. Chandrasekhar, 1968. "How India is tackling her population problem," Demography, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 642-650, June.
  5. Robert W. Fogel, 2003. "Forecasting The Demand For Health Care In Oecd Nations And China," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(1), pages 1-10, 01.
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Cited by:
  1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Linlin Hu & Yuanli Liu & Ajay Mahal & Winnie Yip, 2007. "The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India," PGDA Working Papers 2807, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  2. Robert W. Fogel, 2009. "The Impact of the Asian Miracle on the Theory of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 14967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Robert W. Fogel, 2006. "Why China is Likely to Achieve its Growth Objectives," NBER Working Papers 12122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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