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The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India

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Author Info

  • David E. Bloom

    ()
    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • David Canning

    ()
    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Linlin Hu

    (Tsinghua University (School of Public Policy and Management))

  • Yuanli Liu

    ()
    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Ajay Mahal

    ()
    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Winnie Yip

    ()
    (Harvard School of Public Health)

Abstract

We find that a cross-country model of economic growth successfully tracks the growth takeoffs in China and India. The major drivers of the predicted takeoffs are improved health, increased openness to trade, and a rising labor force-to-population ratio due to fertility decline. We also explore the effect of the reallocation of labor from low-productivity agriculture to the higher productivity industry and service sectors. Including the money value of longevity improvements in a measure of full income reduces the gap between the magnitude of China's takeoff relative to India's due to the relative stagnation in life expectancy in China since 1980.

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File URL: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/WorkingPapers/2007/PGDA_WP_28.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Program on the Global Demography of Aging in its series PGDA Working Papers with number 2807.

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Date of creation: Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:2807

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Web page: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda
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Keywords: aging; health; retirement;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. David E. Bloom & Elizabeth T. Cafiero & Mark E. McGovern & Klaus Prettner & Anderson Stanciole & Jonathan Weiss & Samuel Bakkila & Larry Rosenberg, 2013. "The Economic Impact of Non-Communicable Disease in China and India: Estimates, Projections, and Comparisons," NBER Working Papers 19335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Groot, Loek & Peeters, Marga, 2011. "A global view on demographic pressure and labour market participation," MPRA Paper 32057, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. David E. Bloom, 2011. "Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth," PGDA Working Papers 6511, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  4. Narayan, Seema & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Mishra, Sagarika, 2010. "Investigating the relationship between health and economic growth: Empirical evidence from a panel of 5 Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 404-411, August.
  5. Arokiasamy Perianayagam & Srinivas Goli, 2012. "Provisional results of the 2011 Census of India: Slowdown in growth, ascent in literacy, but more missing girls," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(10), pages 785-801, August.

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