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The Contribution of Population Health and Demographic Change to Economic Growth in China and India

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Author Info

  • David E. Bloom

    ()
    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • David Canning

    ()
    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Linlin Hu

    (Tsinghua University (School of Public Policy and Management))

  • Yuanli Liu

    ()
    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Ajay Mahal

    ()
    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Winnie Yip

    ()
    (Harvard School of Public Health)

Abstract

We find that a cross-country model of economic growth successfully tracks the growth takeoffs in China and India. The major drivers of the predicted takeoffs are improved health, increased openness to trade, and a rising labor force-to-population ratio due to fertility decline. We also explore the effect of the reallocation of labor from low-productivity agriculture to the higher productivity industry and service sectors. Including the money value of longevity improvements in a measure of full income reduces the gap between the magnitude of China's takeoff relative to India's due to the relative stagnation in life expectancy in China since 1980.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Program on the Global Demography of Aging in its series PGDA Working Papers with number 2807.

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Date of creation: Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:2807

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Web page: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda
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Keywords: aging; health; retirement;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bloom, David E. & Cafiero, Elizabeth T. & McGovern, Mark E. & Prettner, Klaus & Stanciole, Anderson & Weiss, Jonathan & Bakkila, Samuel & Rosenberg, Larry, 2013. "The Economic Impact of Non-communicable Disease in China and India: Estimates, Projections, and Comparisons," IZA Discussion Papers 7563, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  2. Arokiasamy Perianayagam & Srinivas Goli, 2012. "Provisional results of the 2011 Census of India: Slowdown in growth, ascent in literacy, but more missing girls," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(10), pages 785-801, August.
  3. Narayan, Seema & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Mishra, Sagarika, 2010. "Investigating the relationship between health and economic growth: Empirical evidence from a panel of 5 Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 404-411, August.
  4. Marga Peeters & Loek Groot, 2012. "A Global View On Demographic Pressure And Labour Market Participation," Journal of Global Economy, Research Centre for Social Sciences,Mumbai, India, vol. 8(2), pages 165-194, June.
  5. David E. Bloom, 2011. "Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth," PGDA Working Papers 6511, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.

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