David E. Bloom (Harvard School of Public Health) David Canning (Harvard School of Public Health) Linlin Hu (Tsinghua University (School of Public Policy and Management)) Yuanli Liu (Harvard School of Public Health) Ajay Mahal (Harvard School of Public Health) Winnie Yip (Harvard School of Public Health)
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We find that a cross-country model of economic growth successfully tracks the growth takeoffs in China and India. The major drivers of the predicted takeoffs are improved health, increased openness to trade, and a rising labor force-to-population ratio due to fertility decline. We also explore the effect of the reallocation of labor from low-productivity agriculture to the higher productivity industry and service sectors. Including the money value of longevity improvements in a measure of full income reduces the gap between the magnitude of China's takeoff relative to India's due to the relative stagnation in life expectancy in China since 1980.
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Paper provided by Program on the Global Demography of Aging in its series PGDA Working Papers with number
2807.