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Why China is Likely to Achieve its Growth Objectives

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  • Robert W. Fogel

Abstract

In 2002, the Chinese Communist Party announced a goal of quadrupling per capita income by the year 2020. Starting at income levels of the year 2000, this would require a growth rate of 7.2 percent per annum in per capita income or close to 8.0 percent in GDP. Such unresolved and emerging problems as growing income disparities, increasing pollution, pressures on infrastructure, the inefficiency of state owned enterprises, and political instability are often cited as reasons to doubt the attainability of the CCP%u2019s goal. However, China%u2019s progress in addressing fundamental constraints that might limit rapid economic growth augurs well for the success of its economic goals. Although there are disagreements about economic policy among top leaders, the continued transformation into a market economy and the promotion of increasing local autonomy in economic matters are not in doubt. In education, China has substantially increased the percentage of its workforce receiving a college education, and continuing growth in this investment in human capital could account for a large portion of the desired growth rate. In addition, the value of improvements in the quality of economic output unmeasured by GDP, such as advances in the quality of health care and education, could raise reported growth rates by as much as 60 percent. Finally, the government%u2019s increasing sensitivity to public opinion and issues of inequality and corruption, combined with improving living conditions, have resulted in a level of popular confidence in the government that makes political instability unlikely.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12122.

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Date of creation: Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12122

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  1. Fogel,Robert William, 2004. "The Escape from Hunger and Premature Death, 1700–2100," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521004886.
  2. repec:reg:wpaper:282 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Kevin J. Stiroh & Dale W. Jorgenson, 2000. "U.S. Economic Growth at the Industry Level," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 161-167, May.
  4. Robert W. Fogel, 2004. "High Performing Asian Economies," NBER Working Papers 10752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Alwyn Young, 2000. "Gold into Base Metals: Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period," NBER Working Papers 7856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Heckman, James J., 2005. "China's human capital investment," China Economic Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 50-70.
  7. Viscusi, W Kip & Aldy, Joseph E, 2003. " The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates throughout the World," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 5-76, August.
  8. Roy Bahl & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez, 2003. "Fiscal Federalism and Economic Reform in China," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University paper0313, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University.
  9. Fogel, Robert William, 2000. "The Fourth Great Awakening and the Future of Egalitarianism," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226256627, February.
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  11. Eswar Prasad, 2004. "China's Growth and Integration into the World Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 232, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Declan Curran & Michael Funke & Jue Wang, 2007. "Economic Growth across Space and Time: subprovincial Evidence from Mainland China," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers, Hamburg University, Department of Economics 20710, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  2. Thammarak Moenjak & Kengjai Watjanapukka & Oramone Chantapant & Teeravit Pobsukhirun, 2010. "New Globalization: Risks and Opportunities for Thailand in the Next Decade," Working Papers, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand 2010-04, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
  3. Robert W. Fogel, 2009. "The Impact of the Asian Miracle on the Theory of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 14967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2007. "Appreciating the Renminbi," Departmental Working Papers, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics 2007-09, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  5. William T. Allen & Han Shen, 2012. "Assessing China's Top-Down Securities Markets," NBER Chapters, in: Capitalizing China, pages 149-195 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. repec:reg:wpaper:96 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Yusuf, Shahid & Nabeshima, Kaoru & Wei Ha, 2007. "What makes cities healthy ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4107, The World Bank.
  8. William T. Allen & Han Shen, 2011. "Assessing China's Top-Down Securities Markets," NBER Working Papers 16713, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2007. "China’s Real Exchange Rate," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics 2007-479, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.

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