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Appreciating the Renminbi

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  • Rod Tyers

    ()

  • Ying Zhang

Abstract

International pressure to revalue China’s currency stems in part from the expectation that rapid economic growth should be associated with an underlying real exchange rate appreciation. This hinges on the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis, which sees growth as stemming from improvements in traded sector productivity and associated rises in wages and non-traded prices. Yet, despite extraordinary growth after the mid-1990s China’s real exchange rate showed no tendency to appreciate until after 2004. We use a dynamic general equilibrium model to simulate the economy and show that, during this period, trade reforms and a rising national saving rate were offsetting forces in the presence of elastic labour supply. We then examine the possible determinants of the striking transition to real appreciation thereafter, noting mounting evidence that an improved rural terms of trade has tightened China’s labour market. We show that, should the Chinese government bow to international pressure by appreciating the renminbi either via an extraordinary monetary contraction or via export disincentives the consequences would be harmful for both Chinese and global interests.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University in its series CAMA Working Papers with number 2010-30.

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Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2010-30

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References

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  1. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2007. "China’s Real Exchange Rate," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2007-479, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  2. Bergin, Paul R & Glick, Reuven & Taylor, Alan M, 2004. "Productivity, Tradability and the Long-Run Price Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 4494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Robert C. Feenstra & Chang Hong, 2010. "China's Exports and Employment," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 167-199 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Tyers, Rod & Golley, Jane, 2008. "China’s Real Exchange Rate Puzzle," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 547-574.
  5. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  6. Eswar Prasad & Qing Wang & Thomas Rumbaugh, 2005. "Putting the Cart Before the Horse? Capital Account Liberalization and Exchange Rate Flexibility in China," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 05/1, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007. "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation," NBER Working Papers 12850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. Mario Crucini & Chris Telmer & Marios Zachariadis, . "Understanding European Real Exchange Rates," GSIA Working Papers 227, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
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  14. Jaewoo Lee & Joshua Aizenman, 2006. "Financial Versus Monetary Mercantilism," IMF Working Papers 06/280, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2006. "China's Growth to 2030: Demographic Change and the Labour Supply Constraint," PGDA Working Papers 1106, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  16. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2008. "Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism: Long-run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 593-611, 05.
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  19. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2003. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 9971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley & Bu Yongxiang & Iain Bain, 2007. "China's Economic Growth and its Real Exchange Rate," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_014, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  21. Ken Miyajima, 2005. "Real Exchange Rates in Growing Economies," IMF Working Papers 05/233, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Working Papers 96-02, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  23. William R. Cline, 2005. "The Case for a New Plaza Agreement," Policy Briefs PB05-04, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  24. Robert W. Fogel, 2006. "Why China is Likely to Achieve its Growth Objectives," NBER Working Papers 12122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Rod Tyers & Yongxiang Bu & Ian Bain, 2006. "China’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: A Counterfactual Analysis," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-466, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  26. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2005. "Can the Balassa-Samuelson theory explain long-run real exchange rate movements in OECD countries?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(8), pages 519-530.
  27. Tung, Chen-Yuan & Baker, Sam, 2004. "RMB revaluation will serve China's self-interest," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 331-335.
  28. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain & Jahnvi Vedi, 2007. "The Global Economic Implications of Freer Skilled Migration," DEGIT Conference Papers c012_028, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
  29. Liu, Jing & Nico van Leeuwen & Tri Thanh Vo & Rod Tyers & Thomas W. Hertel, 1998. "Disaggregating Labor Payments by Skill Level in GTAP," GTAP Technical Papers 314, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rod Tyers, 2008. "Competition Policy, Corporate Saving and China's Current Account Surplus," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2008-496, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  2. Rod Tyers, 2013. "Looking Inward for Transformative Growth in China," CAMA Working Papers 2013-48, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  3. Rod Tyers, 2013. "International Effects of China's Rise and Transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian Perspectives," CAMA Working Papers 2013-44, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. Rod Tyers, 2014. "Analysing the Short Run Effects of China’s Economic Reform Agenda," CAMA Working Papers 2014-29, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  5. Rod Tyers & Ling Huang, 2009. "Combating China's Export Contraction: Fiscal Expansion or Accelerated Industrial Reform?," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2009-501, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  6. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2008. "American And European Financial Shocks: Implications For Chinese Economic Performance," CAMA Working Papers 2008-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  7. Rod TYERS, 2013. "China and Global Macroeconomic Interdependence," CAMA Working Papers 2013-34, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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