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Productivity, the Terms of Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate: Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis Revisited

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The paper examines how the Balassa-Samuelson hypothesis is affected by a modern variation of the standard model that allows product differentiation (within the traded and nontraded goods sectors) with the number of firms determined exogenously or endogenously. The hypothesis is found to be fragile in the modified framework. Small variations in the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign traded goods (within the range of estimates suggested in the literature), for example, can make the effect of a traded-goods productivity improvement on the real exchange rate negative or positive, as well as small or large. This result provides a potential explanation of the mixed empirical results that have been obtained on the relationship between productivity and the real exchange rate.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Carleton University, Department of Economics in its series Carleton Economic Papers with number 10-06.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: May 2010
Date of revision: Nov 2010
Publication status: Published: Productivity, the Terms of Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate: Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis Revisited – revised version in Review of International Economics, Vol. 18, No. 5 (November 2010), pp. 924–936
Handle: RePEc:car:carecp:10-06

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Keywords: Real exchange rate; Balassa-Samuelson model; Productivity; Terms of trade;

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  1. Mohsin S. Khan & Ehsan U. Choudhri, 2004. "Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries: Are Balassa-Samuelson Effects Present?," IMF Working Papers 04/188, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Philippe Martin & Paolo Pesenti, 2008. "Varieties and the Transfer Problem: The Extensive Margin of Current Account Adjustment," RSCAS Working Papers 2008/01, European University Institute.
  3. Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-02, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  4. Ghironi, Fabio & Melitz, Marc J, 2004. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heteroegenous Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 4595, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Paul Bergin & Reuven Glick & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Productivity, Tradability, and the Long-Run Price Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 10569, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Luca Antonio Ricci & Jaewoo Lee & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A Cross-Country Perspective," IMF Working Papers 08/13, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  8. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584.
  9. Hertel, Thomas & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2003. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," GTAP Working Papers 1324, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  10. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1996. "Relative Labour Productivity and the Real Exchange Rate in the Long Run: Evidence for a Panel of OECD Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 1464, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Krugman, Paul, 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 950-59, December.
  12. Jaewoo Lee & Man-Keung Tang, 2007. "Does Productivity Growth Appreciate the Real Exchange Rate?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 164-187, 02.
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Cited by:
  1. Olivier Cardi & Romain Restout, 2013. "Imperfect Mobility Of Labor Across Sectors: A Reappraisal Of The Balassa-Samuelson Effect," Working Papers of BETA 2013-04, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.

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