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Productivity, commodity prices and the real exchange rate: The long-run behavior of the Canada–US exchange rate

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  • Choudhri, Ehsan U.
  • Schembri, Lawrence L.

Abstract

The paper examines the Canada–US real exchange rate since the early 1970s to test two popular explanations of the long-run real exchange rate based on the influence of sectoral productivities and commodity prices. The empirical analysis finds that both variables exert a significant long-run effect. However, the relation for the real exchange rate has shifted as the effect of each variable has become stronger and a positive trend is present since 1990. The effect of productivity, moreover, is opposite to that predicted by the standard Balassa–Samuelson theory. An explanation of these findings is suggested based on a general-equilibrium model that includes differentiated traded manufactures and homogeneous commodities.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Economics & Finance.

Volume (Year): 29 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 537-551

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Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:29:y:2014:i:c:p:537-551

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165

Related research

Keywords: Real exchange rates; Productivity; Commodity prices; Balassa–Samuelson model;

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  1. Ehsan U. Choudhri & Lawrence L. Schembri, 2010. "Productivity, the Terms of Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate: Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis Revisited," Carleton Economic Papers 10-06, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2010.
  2. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  3. Thomas Hertel & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2004. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," NBER Working Papers 10477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi & Yu-chin Chen, 2008. "Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?," 2008 Meeting Papers 540, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Ramzi Issa & Robert Lafrance & John Murray, 2008. "The turning black tide: energy prices and the Canadian dollar," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 737-759, August.
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  7. Benigno, Gianluca & Christoph Thoenissen, 2002. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Supply Side Performance," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 19, Royal Economic Society.
  8. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2004. "International Risk Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 4746, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Amano, Robert A. & van Norden, Simon, 1995. "Terms of trade and real exchange rates: the Canadian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 83-104, February.
  10. Lee, Chia-Hao & Chou, Pei-I, 2013. "The behavior of real exchange rate: Nonlinearity and breaks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 125-133.
  11. Bergin, Paul R., 2006. "How well can the New Open Economy Macroeconomics explain the exchange rate and current account?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 675-701, August.
  12. Chaban, Maxym, 2009. "Commodity currencies and equity flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 836-852, September.
  13. Ferreira Filipe, Sara, 2012. "Equity order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 359-381.
  14. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive 521, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
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