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Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Supply Side Performance

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Author Info
Benigno, Gianluca (London School of Economics)
Christoph Thoenissen (Bank of England)

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Abstract

This paper develops a two country, optimising, sticky price model of real exchange rate determination in the ënew open macroeconomics' tradition which allows several different forms of deviation from Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), both along the adjustment path and in the steady state. The model has a rich structure, and is designed to provide a flexible tool for policy analysis. Unlike most other papers in the literature, both of the key components of the real exchange rate -- the relative price of non-tradables, and the terms of trade -- are made endogenous, allowing a more complete analysis of the impact of structural shocks. To illustrate one possible application, the model is calibrated to match key elements of the UK and euro area economies, and used to examine the extent to which possible improvements in the UK's relative supply side performance might account for the sharp and persistent appreciation in sterling since 1996. The results are not supportive of this hypothesis. In the model, improvements in productivity, goods market and labour market competitiveness are all associated with a depreciation in both the spot and the equilibrium real sterling exchange rates. Two potential supply-side sources of an equilibrium appreciation -- a productivity improvement biased towards traded goods (Balassa-Samuelson effect), and an anticipated future productivity rise -- are considered; however each is insufficient to account for a long run equilibrium appreciation; the latter may account for an initial appreciation of the real exchange rate. We conclude by considering further mechanisms which could affect our results.

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Paper provided by Royal Economic Society in its series Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 with number 19.

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Date of creation: 29 Aug 2002
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Handle: RePEc:ecj:ac2002:19

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  2. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2002. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Exchange Rate Disconnect," NBER Working Papers 8858, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2000. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange Rate Flexibility," Working Papers 042000, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
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  4. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 1997. "Monetary Shocks and Real Exchange Rates in Sticky Price Models of International Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5876, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Paul Krugman, 1989. "Differences In Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 2761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2001. "International Dimensions of Optimal Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Argia Sbordone, 2002. "An optimizing model of U.S. wage and price dynamics," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Benigno, Gianluca & Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Monetary Policy Rules and the Exchange Rate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2807, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Benigno, Gianluca, 2004. "Real exchange rate persistence and monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 473-502, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. King, Robert G & Watson, Mark W, 1998. "The Solution of Singular Linear Difference Systems under Rational Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1015-26, November.
  19. Benigno, Gianluca & Christoph Thoenissen, 2002. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates and Supply Side Performance," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 19, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Cedric Tille & Nicolas Stoffels & Olga Gorbachev, 2001. "To what extent does productivity drive the dollar?," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "Monetary policy in an estimated stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model of the Euro area," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar. [Downloadable!]
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  25. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1998. "Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Working Papers 6618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  28. Michele Cavallo & Fabio Ghironi, 2000. "Net Foreign Assets and the Exchange Rate: Redux Revived," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 505, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Feb 2002. [Downloadable!]
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  29. Charles Engel, 1999. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 507-538, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  30. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2001. "Endogenous Currency of Price Setting in a Dynamic Open Economy Model," NBER Working Papers 8559, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  31. Sargent, Thomas J, 1989. "Two Models of Measurements and the Investment Accelerator," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 251-87, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  33. Benigno, Pierpaolo, 2001. "Price Stability with Imperfect Financial Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 2854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  34. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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