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Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?

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  • Domenico Ferraro
  • Ken Rogoff
  • Barbara Rossi

Abstract

This paper investigates whether oil price shocks have a reliable and stable out-of-sample relationship with the Canadian/U.S Dollar nominal exchange rate. Despite state-of-the-art methodologies and clean data, we find paradoxically little systematic relation between oil prices and the exchange rate, especially if one takes the monthly and quarterly frequencies into account. In contrast, the very short term relationship between oil prices and exchange rates at the daily frequency is rather robust, and holds no matter whether we use contemporaneous (realized) or lagged oil price shocks in our regression. However, the short-term out-of-sample predictive ability is ephemeral, and it mostly appears after time variation in the forecasting ability of the models has been appropriately taken into account. We show that a similar results hold for other currencies and commodity price shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Duke University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 11-05.

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Length: 54
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:11-05

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Is there a Homogeneous Causality Pattern between Oil Prices and Currencies of Oil Importers and Exporters?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0431, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  2. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2013. "Futures Trading and the Excess Comovement of Commodity Prices," Working Papers halshs-00793724, HAL.
  3. repec:ipg:wpaper:19 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Marco J. Lombardi & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2012. "Oil price density forecasts: exploring the linkages with stock markets," Working Paper 2012/24, Norges Bank.
  5. Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Are the Commodity Currencies an Exception to the Rule?," Working Papers UWEC-2006-28, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2012.
  6. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2014. "Oil price and macroeconomy in India - An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach," Working Papers 2014-068, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  7. Felício, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira & Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2013. "Common factors and the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case," Insper Working Papers wpe_318, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  8. Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2013. "On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: implications for portfolio allocation," BIS Working Papers 420, Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Dunis, Christian & Kellard, Neil M. & Snaith, Stuart, 2013. "Forecasting EUR–USD implied volatility: The case of intraday data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4943-4957.
  10. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George, 2013. "Predictability of currency carry trades and asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 139-163.
  11. Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2013. "Liquidity and Exchange Rates," Insper Working Papers wpe_325, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  12. Hui Jun ZHANG & Jean-Marie DUFOUR & John W. GALBRAITH, 2013. "Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices : Measuring Causality at Multiple Horizons," Cahiers de recherche 14-2013, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  13. Yi Zhang, 2013. "The Links between the Price of Oil and the Value of US Dollar," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 341 - 351.
  14. Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2014. "The Usefulness of Financial Variables in Predicting Exchange Rate Movements," Insper Working Papers wpe_332, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  15. Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Ayachi, Fethi, 2012. "Another Look at the Interaction Between Oil Price Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility: The Case of Small Open Economies," MPRA Paper 49144, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2012.

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