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Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size

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  • Inoue, Atsushi
  • Rossi, Barbara

Abstract

This paper proposes new methodologies for evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performance that are robust to the choice of the estimation window size. The methodologies involve evaluating the predictive ability of forecasting models over a wide range of window sizes. We show that the tests proposed in the literature may lack the power to detect predictive ability and might be subject to data snooping across different window sizes if used repeatedly. An empirical application shows the usefulness of the methodologies for evaluating exchange rate models' forecasting ability.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 8542.

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Date of creation: Aug 2011
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8542

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Keywords: estimation window; forecast evaluation; predictive ability testing;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 432-453, April.
  2. Richard A. Ashley & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2013. "Credible Granger-Causality Inference with Modest Sample Lengths: A Cross-Sample Validation Approach," Working Papers e07-40, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2014. "The Usefulness of Financial Variables in Predicting Exchange Rate Movements," Insper Working Papers wpe_332, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  4. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 9575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Peter Reinhard Hansen & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Equivalence Between Out-of-Sample Forecast Comparisons and Wald Statistics," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/24, European University Institute.
  6. Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2013. "Liquidity and Exchange Rates," Insper Working Papers wpe_325, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  7. Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Fotis Papailias, 2013. "Covariance Averaging for Improved Estimation and Portfolio Allocation," Working Paper Series 66_13, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

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