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International Financial Adjustment

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Author Info
Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas
Helene Rey

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Abstract

The paper proposes a unified framework to study the dynamics of net foreign assets and exchange rate movements. We show that deteriorations in a country's net exports or net foreign asset position have to be matched either by future net export growth (trade adjustment channel) or by future increases in the returns of the net foreign asset portfolio (hitherto unexplored financial adjustment channel). Using a newly constructed data set on US gross foreign positions, we find that stabilizing valuation effects contribute as much as 31% of the external adjustment. Our theory also has asset pricing implications. Deviations from trend of the ratio of net exports to net foreign assets predict net foreign asset portfolio returns one quarter to two years ahead and net exports at longer horizons. The exchange rate affects the trade balance and the valuation of net foreign assets. It is forecastable in and out of sample at one quarter and beyond. A one standard deviation decrease of the ratio of net exports to net foreign assets predicts an annualized 4% depreciation of the exchange rate over the next quarter.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11155.

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Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11155

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F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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References listed on IDEAS
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  24. Harald Hau & Helene Rey, 2002. "Exchange Rate, Equity Prices and Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 9398, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  25. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "On the Selection of Forecasting Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2003. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series 1011, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
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