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The U.S. Current Account and the Dollar

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Author Info
Olivier Blanchard
Francesco Giavazzi
Filipa Sa

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Abstract

There are two main forces behind the large U.S. current account deficits. First, an increase in the U.S. demand for foreign goods. Second, an increase in the foreign demand for U.S. assets. Both forces have contributed to steadily increasing current account deficits since the mid--1990s. This increase has been accompanied by a real dollar appreciation until late 2001, and a real depreciation since. The depreciation has accelerated recently, raising the questions of whether and how much more is to come, and if so, against which currencies, the euro, the yen, or the renminbi. Our purpose in this paper is to explore these issues. Our theoretical contribution is to develop a simple portfolio model of exchange rate and current account determination, and to use it to interpret the past and explore alternative scenarios for the future. Our practical conclusions are that substantially more depreciation is to come, surely against the yen and the renminbi, and probably against the euro.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 11137.

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Date of creation: Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:11137

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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    Other versions:
  3. Philip R. Lane & G Milesi-Feretti, 2004. "Financial Globalization and Exchange Rates," CEP Discussion Papers dp0662, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2005. "International Financial Adjustment," International Finance 0505004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 460-485, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Ziesemer,Thomas, 2005. "Growth with perfect capital movements in CES: US Debt Dynamics and model estimation," Research Memoranda 012, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michele Cavallo & Cédric Tille, 2006. "Could capital gains smooth a current account rebalancing?," Working Paper Series 2006-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2007. "Estimations of US debt dynamics: Growth cum debt and the savings glut in Kouri’s model," UNU-MERIT Working Paper Series 003, United Nations University, Maastricht Economic and social Research and training centre on Innovation and Technology. [Downloadable!]
  4. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2005. "The Dot-Com Bubble the Bush Deficits, and the U.S. Current Account," NBER Working Papers 11543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "The Research Agenda: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas on Global Imbalances and Financial Factors," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), April. [Downloadable!]
  7. Michele Cavallo & Cédric Tille, 2006. "Current account adjustment with high financial integration: a scenario analysis," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 31-45. [Downloadable!]
  8. José De Gregorio, 2005. "Global Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustment," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 15, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ricardo Hausmann and Federico Sturzenegger, 2006. "Global imbalances or bad accounting? The missing dark matter in the wealth of nations," Business School Working Papers globalimbal, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella. [Downloadable!]
  10. Roberto Scazzieri & Lilia Costabile, 2006. "Social Models, Growth and the International Monetary System: Implications for Europe and the United States," Working Papers wp117, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst. [Downloadable!]
  11. Cedric Tille, 2005. "Financial integration and the wealth effect of exchange rate fluctuations," Staff Reports 226, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Papaioannou, Elias & Portes, Richard & Siourounis, Gregorios, 2006. "Optimal Currency Shares in International Reserves: The Impact of the Euro and the Prospects for the Dollar," CEPR Discussion Papers 5734, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Philip R. Lane, 2007. "Europe and Global Imbalances," IMF Working Papers 07/144, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Nouriel Roubini & Brad Setser, 2005. "Will the Bretton Woods 2 regime unravel soon? the risk of a hard landing in 2005-2006," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb. [Downloadable!]
  15. De Lima, Gabrielle & Moura, Guilherme & Meurer, Roberto & Da Silva, Sergio, 2007. "US Current Account Deficit and Exchange Rate Tax," MPRA Paper 3908, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  16. Benjamin Eden, 2006. "International Seigniorage Payments," Working Papers 0622, Department of Economics, Vanderbilt University. [Downloadable!]
  17. Marcel Fratzscher, 2007. "US shocks and global exchange rate configurations," Working Paper Series 835, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  18. Edwin M. Truman, 2005. "Postponing Global Adjustment: An Analysis of the Pending Adjustment of Global Imbalances," Peterson Institute Working Paper Series WP05-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics. [Downloadable!]
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