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A Portfolio Theory of International Capital Flows

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  • Michael B. Devereux
  • Makoto Saito

Abstract

This paper constructs a model in which the currency composition of national portfolios is an essential element in facilitating capital ‡ows between countries. In a two country environment, each country chooses optimal nominal bond portfolios in face of real and nominal risk.Current account deficits are financed by increases in domestic currency debt, but balanced by increases in foreign currency credit. This is combined with an evolution of risk-premiums such that the rate of return on the debtor country’s gross liabilities is lower than the return on its gross assets. This ensures stability of the world wealth distribution.

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Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp124.

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Date of creation: 05 Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp124

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  1. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "Financial globalization and exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19926, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  2. Maurice Obstfeld, 2004. "External Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 10843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "International Financial Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 665-703, 08.
  4. Neumeyer, P.A., 1995. "Currencies and the Allocation of Risk: The Welfare Effect of a Monetary Union," DELTA Working Papers 95-27, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  5. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  7. Anna Pavlova & Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 9834, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Hnatkovska, Viktoria, 2010. "Home bias and high turnover: Dynamic portfolio choice with incomplete markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 113-128, January.
  9. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2001. "Global Implications of Self-Oriented National Monetary Rules," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt6412m5b7, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  10. Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1994. "The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-044, University of California at Berkeley.
  11. Heathcote, Jonathan & Perri, Fabrizio, 2008. "The International Diversification Puzzle is Not as Bad as You Think," CEPR Discussion Papers 6982, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2007. "The Unsustainable U.S. Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 339-376 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries," Trinity Economics Papers 20014, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  14. Akito Matsumoto & Charles Engel, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in a Monetary Open-Economy DSGE Model," IMF Working Papers 05/165, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Cedric Tille, 2005. "Financial integration and the wealth effect of exchange rate fluctuations," Staff Reports 226, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  16. Kollmann, Robert, 2006. "International Portfolio Equilibrium and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 5512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  17. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18.
  18. Philip R. Lane & G Milesi-Feretti, 2004. "Financial Globalization and Exchange Rates," CEP Discussion Papers dp0662, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  19. Saito, Makoto, 1997. "A note on ergodic distributions in two-agent economies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 133-141, March.
  20. Michael P. Dooley & Peter Isard, 1979. "The portfolio-balance model of exchange rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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