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A Portfolio Theory of International Capital Flows

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Michael B. Devereux
Makoto Saito

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Abstract

This paper constructs a model in which the currency composition of national portfolios is an essential element in facilitating capital ‡ows between countries. In a two country environment, each country chooses optimal nominal bond portfolios in face of real and nominal risk.Current account deficits are financed by increases in domestic currency debt, but balanced by increases in foreign currency credit. This is combined with an evolution of risk-premiums such that the rate of return on the debtor country’s gross liabilities is lower than the return on its gross assets. This ensures stability of the world wealth distribution.

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Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp124.

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Date of creation: 05 Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp124

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  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Baxter, Marianne & Jermann, Urban J, 1997. "The International Diversification Puzzle Is Worse Than You Think," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 170-80, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, 2004. "The international diversification puzzle is not as bad as you think," 2004 Meeting Papers 152, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2004. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Working Papers 10869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Maurice Obstfeld, 2004. "External Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 10843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Global Implications of Self-Oriented National Monetary Rules," Macroeconomics 0303018, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Tille, Cédric, 2008. "Financial integration and the wealth effect of exchange rate fluctuations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 283-294, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kollmann, Robert, 2006. "International Portfolio Equilibrium and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 5512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Philip R. Lane & G Milesi-Feretti, 2004. "Financial Globalization and Exchange Rates," CEP Discussion Papers dp0662, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18. [Downloadable!]
  11. Charles Engel & Akito Matsumoto, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in a Monetary Open-Economy DSGE Model," IMF Working Papers 05/165, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Michael P. Dooley & Peter Isard, 1979. "The portfolio-balance model of exchange rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries," CEG Working Papers 20012, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2005. "International Financial Adjustment," International Finance 0505004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2003. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," Working papers 4322-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Saito, Makoto, 1997. "A note on ergodic distributions in two-agent economies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 133-141, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Neumeyer, Pablo Andres, 1998. "Currencies and the Allocation of Risk: The Welfare Effects of a Monetary Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 246-59, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Devereux, Michael B & Sutherland, Alan, 2007. "Financial Globalization and Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 6147, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2007. "Solving for Country Portfolios in Open Economy Macro Models," Working Papers 162007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Tomas Dvorak & Francis E. Warnock, 2007. "The Stability of Large External Imbalances: The Role of Returns Differentials," NBER Working Papers 13074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fabio Ghironi & Jaewoo Lee & Alessandro Rebucci, 2007. "The Valuation Channel of External Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 12937, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Kollmann, Robert Miguel W. K. & Martin, Philippe J., 2008. "International portfolios, capital accumulation and foreign assets dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,19, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Philip Lane & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2007. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," NBER Working Papers 13433, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Marques, Luis B, 2007. "Welfare Implications of Exchange Rate Changes," MPRA Paper 5721, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Michael B. Devereux & Alan Sutherland, 2008. "Country portfolios in open economy macro models," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 09, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Devereux, Michael B & Sutherland, Alan, 2007. "Country Portfolio Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 6208, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2006. "Are Valuation Effects Desirable from a Global Perspective?," NBER Working Papers 12219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kollmann, Robert, 2006. "International Portfolio Equilibrium and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 5512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Michael B Devereux, 2007. "Financial Globalization and Emerging Market Portfolios," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
  13. Cedric Tille, 2005. "Financial integration and the wealth effect of exchange rate fluctuations," Staff Reports 226, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Tomas Dvorak & Francis Warnock, 2007. "Cross-border returns differentials," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 04, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
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