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Speculative Growth: Hints from the U.S. Economy

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Author Info
Ricardo J. Caballero
Emmanuel Farhi
Mohamad L. Hammour

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Abstract

We propose a framework for understanding episodes of vigorous economic expansion and extreme asset valuations. We interpret this phenomenon as a highvaluation equilibrium with a low cost of capital based on optimism about future funding. The key ingredient for such equilibrium is feedback from increased growth to a decline in the long-run cost of capital. This feedback arises when an expansion comes with technological progress in the capital sector, when fiscal rules generate procyclical fiscal surpluses, when the rest of the world has lower expansion potential or high saving needs, and when financial constraints are relaxed by the expansion itself. (JEL E22, O33, O41)

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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 96 (2006)
Issue (Month): 4 (September)
Pages: 1159-1192
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:96:y:2006:i:4:p:1159-1192

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Jaume Ventura, 2003. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," Economics Working Papers 848, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  2. Olivier, Jacques, 2000. "Growth-Enhancing Bubbles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(1), pages 133-51, February.
  3. Carroll, Christopher D. & Weil, David N., 1994. "Saving and growth: a reinterpretation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40, pages 133-192, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Grossman, Gene M. & Yanagawa, Noriyuki, 1993. "Asset bubbles and endogenous growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 3-19, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Jeremy Greenwood & Boyan Jovanovic, 1999. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 116-122, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Andrew B. Abel & N. Gregory Mankiw & Lawrence H. Summers & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 1989. "Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 2097, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. King, Ian & Ferguson, Don, 1993. "Dynamic inefficiency, endogenous growth, and Ponzi games," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 79-104, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. De Long, J Bradford, et al, 1989. " The Size and Incidence of the Losses from Noise Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 681-96, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Tirole, Jean, 1985. "Asset Bubbles and Overlapping Generations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1499-1528, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Kevin M. Murphy & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1989. "Building Blocks of Market Clearing Business Cycle Models," NBER Working Papers 3004, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "History versus Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 651-67, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2004. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 10548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Saint-Paul, Gilles, 1992. "Fiscal Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(4), pages 1243-59, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Bart Hobijn & Boyan Jovanovic, 2001. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market: Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1203-1220, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Manuel S. Santos & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 19-58, January.
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  16. Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2003. "Stock Market and Investment Goods Prices: Implications for Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 10031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2005. "Bubbles and Capital Flow Volatility: Causes and Risk Management," NBER Working Papers 11618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Kevin J. Lansing, 2008. "Speculative growth and overreaction to technology shocks," Working Paper Series 2008-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  3. Marcel Fratzscher & Luciana Juvenal & Lucio Sarno, 2007. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," Working Paper Series 790, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  4. Murillo Campello & John Graham, 2007. "Do Stock Prices Influence Corporate Decisions? Evidence from the Technology Bubble," NBER Working Papers 13640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2006. "On the Macroeconomics of Asset Shortages," NBER Working Papers 12753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. George-Marios Angeletos, 2008. "Private Sunspots and Idiosyncratic Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 14015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. George-Marios Angeletos & Guido Lorenzoni & Alessandro Pavan, 2007. "Wall Street and Silicon Valley: A Delicate Interaction," NBER Working Papers 13475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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