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Rational Housing Bubble

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  • Zhao, Bo

Abstract

This paper studies an economy inhabited by overlapping generations of homeowners and investors, with the only difference between the two being that homeowners derive utility from housing services whereas investors do not. Tight collateral constraint limits the borrowing capacity of homeowners and drives the equilibrium interest rate level down to the housing price growth rate, which makes housing attractive as a store of value for investors. As long as the rental market friction is high enough, the investors will hold a positive number of vacant houses in equilibrium. A housing bubble arises in an equilibrium in which investors hold houses for resale purposes only and without the expectation of receiving a dividend either in terms of utility or rent. The model can be applied to China, where the housing bubble can be attributed to the rapid decline in the replacement rate of the pension system.

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  • Zhao, Bo, 2012. "Rational Housing Bubble," MPRA Paper 49042, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:49042
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    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2018. "The Macroeconomics of Rational Bubbles: A User's Guide," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 505-539, August.
    2. Lise Clain-Chamosset-Yvrard & Thomas Seegmuller, 2018. "Bubble on real estate: The role of altruism and fiscal policy," Working Papers halshs-01885932, HAL.
    3. Jia Pengfei & Lim King Yoong, 2021. "Tax Policy and Toxic Housing Bubbles in China," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 151-183, January.
    4. Gregory Phelan, 2017. "Collateralized borrowing and increasing risk," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(2), pages 471-502, February.
    5. Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan, 2016. "Toxic asset bubbles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 241-271, February.
      • Daisuke Ikeda & Toan Phan, 2016. "Toxic asset bubbles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 61(2), pages 241-271, February.
    6. Evan Osborne, 2016. "China’s transitioning class identity," China Finance and Economic Review, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Bengui, Julien & Phan, Toan, 2018. "Asset pledgeability and endogenously leveraged bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 280-314.
    8. Wen-Chi LIU, 2016. "Do Multiple Housing Bubbles Exist in China? Further Evidence from Generalized Sup ADF Tests," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 135-145, December.
    9. Shingo Ishiguro, 2022. "Management cycles," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 73(1), pages 257-300, February.
    10. Shengguo Li & Jiaqi Liu & Jichang Dong & Xuerong Li, 2021. "20 Years of Research on Real Estate Bubbles, Risk and Exuberance: A Bibliometric Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-24, August.
    11. Dong, Feng & Liu, Jianfeng & Xu, Zhiwei & Zhao, Bo, 2021. "Flight to housing in China," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    12. Feng Dong & Jianjun Miao & Pengfei Wang, 2018. "The perils of credit booms," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(4), pages 819-861, December.
    13. Hirano, Tomohiro & Toda, Alexis Akira, 2024. "Bubble economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 122042, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    14. Fischer, Thomas, 2023. "Spatial inequality and housing in China," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing Bubble; Pension; Dynamic Efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D51 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Exchange and Production Economies
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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