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Saving and Growth: A Reinterpretation

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  • Christopher D. Carroll
  • David N. Weil

Abstract

We examine the relationship between income growth and saving using both cross-country and household data. At the aggregate level, we find that growth Granger causes saving, but that saving does not Granger cause growth. Using household data, we find that households with predictably higher income growth save more than households with predictably low growth. We argue that standard Permanent Income models of consumption cannot explain these findings, but that a model of consumption with habit formation may. The positive effect of growth on saving implies that previous estimates of the effect of saving on growth may be overstated.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4470.

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Date of creation: Sep 1993
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Publication status: published as Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Vol. 40, June 1994,pp. 133-192
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4470

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  1. G. Constantinides, 1990. "Habit formation: a resolution of the equity premium puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1397, David K. Levine.
  2. Barro, Robert J, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-43, May.
  3. J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, . "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department _122, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
  4. N. Gregory Mankiw & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1990. "The Consumption of Stockholders and Non-Stockholders," NBER Working Papers 3402, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Angus Deaton & Christina H. Paxson, 1993. "Saving, Growth, and Aging in Taiwan," NBER Working Papers 4330, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Nelson, C. & Startz, R., 1988. "The Distribution Of The Instrumental Variables Estimator And Its T-Ratio When The Instrument Is A Poor One," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington, Department of Economics at the University of Washington 88-07, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  7. Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 1993. "Consumer Response to the Timing of Income: Evidence from a Change in Tax Withholding," NBER Working Papers 4344, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Katz, L.F. & Murphy, K.M., 1991. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963-1987: Supply and Demand Factors," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research 1580, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  9. Hall, Robert E, 1988. "Intertemporal Substitution in Consumption," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 339-57, April.
  10. Robert B. Barsky & N. Gregory Mankiw & Stephen P. Zeldes, 1987. "Ricardian Consumers With Keynesian Propensities," NBER Working Papers 1400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  12. John MUELLBAUER, 1988. "Habits, Rationality and Myopia in the Life Cycle Consumption Function," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 9, pages 47-70.
  13. repec:fth:harver:1475 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-73, November.
  15. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-63, September.
  16. Joshua D. Angrist & Alan B. Krueger, 1990. "The Effect of Age at School Entry on Educational Attainment: An Application of Instrumental Variables with Moments from Two Samples," NBER Working Papers 3571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  19. Paul M. Romer, 1987. "Crazy Explanations for the Productivity Slowdown," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 163-210 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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