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Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined

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  • Menzie D. Chinn

Abstract

This paper examines the stability of import and export demand functions for the United States over the 1975q1-2001q2 period. Using the Johansen maximum likelihood approach, an export demand function is readily identified. In contrast, there appears to be a structural break in the import demand function in 1995; specifications incorporating this break pass tests for cointegration, although the price elasticity is not statistically significant. Only when excluding computers and parts from the import series is a stable import demand function detected. The resulting point estimates do not exhibit the income asymmetry typically found in other studies of aggregate U.S. trade flows.
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  • Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(3), pages 460-485, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:141:y:2005:i:3:p:460-485
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-005-0039-3
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Imports; exports; elasticities; competitiveness; unit labor costs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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