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The Exchange Rate and US Tourism Balance of Trade

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  • Cheng, Ka Ming
  • Kim, Hyeongwoo
  • Thompson, Henry

Abstract

This paper investigates evidence on the effect of dollar depreciation on the US tourism balance of trade. Export revenue and import spending functions are estimated separately with structural vector autoregressive methods to better capture the dynamic adjustment to exchange rate shocks. Quarterly data cover the period of floating exchange rates from 1973 through 2007. Depreciation raises long term US export revenue but there is no effect on import spending.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/18318/
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 18318.

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Date of creation: Oct 2009
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:18318

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Keywords: balance of trade; exchange rate; tourism; structural vector autoregressive model; J-curve;

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References

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  1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
  2. Jean-Jacques Nowak & Mondher Sahli & Pasquale M. Sgro, 2003. "Tourism, Trade And Domestic Welfare," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 245-258, October.
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  4. Abdelhak Senhadji, 1998. "Time-Series Estimation of Structural Import Demand Equations: A Cross-Country Analysis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(2), pages 236-268, June.
  5. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 1999. "Bilateral J-Curve between U.S. and her trading partners," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 156-165, March.
  6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Malixi, Margaret, 1992. "More evidence on the J curve from LDCs," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 641-653, October.
  7. Haynes, Stephen E & Stone, Joe A, 1982. "Impact of the Terms of Trade on the U.S. Trade Balance: A Reexamination," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 702-06, November.
  8. Ellen E. Meade, 1988. "Exchange rates, adjustment, and the J-curve," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 633-644.
  9. Demirden, Tuvana & Pastine, Ivan, 1995. "Flexible exchange rates and the J-curve: An alternative approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 373-377, June.
  10. Senhadji, Abdelhak S., 1998. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade in LDCs: The S-curve," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 105-131, October.
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  19. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2007:i:26:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S, 1978. "The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(2), pages 275-86, May.
  21. Hazari, Bharat R. & A-Ng, 1993. "An analysis of tourists' consumption of non-traded goods and services on the welfare of the domestic consumers," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 43-58.
  22. Boyd, Derick & Caporale, Gugielmo Maria & Smith, Ron, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 187-200, July.
  23. Michael Vogt, 2008. "Determinants of the demand for US exports and imports of tourism," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(6), pages 667-672.
  24. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-Curve: a literature review," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1377-1398.
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