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The J-Curve: a literature review

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Author Info
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee
Artatrana Ratha

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Abstract

Due to lag structure, currency devaluation is said to worsen the trade balance first and improve it later resulting in a pattern that resemble the letter J, hence the J-Curve phenomenon. Since its introduction by Magee in 1973 ( Brooking Papers on Economic Activity , 1 , pp. 303-25), a large number of studies have attempted to test the phenomenon using different techniques and different model specifications. The results are at best ambiguous and deserve to be collected together for the future generation of researchers and graduate students. This paper fills such a vacuum in the literature by reviewing the J-Curve related empirical papers.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 36 (2004)
Issue (Month): 13 (July)
Pages: 1377-1398
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:36:y:2004:i:13:p:1377-1398

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Bacchetta, Philippe & Gerlach, Stefan, 1994. "Sticky import prices and J-curves," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 281-285. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Froot, Kenneth A & Klemperer, Paul D, 1989. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through When Market Share Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 637-54, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Breuer, Janice Boucher & Clements, Leianne A., 2003. "The commodity composition of US-Japanese trade and the yen/dollar real exchange rate," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 307-330, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326. [Downloadable!]
  7. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Swarnjit Arora & Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Gour Goswami, 2003. "Bilateral J-curve between India and her trading partners," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(9), pages 1037-1041, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  10. Demirden, Tuvana & Pastine, Ivan, 1995. "Flexible exchange rates and the J-curve: An alternative approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 373-377, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Menzie David Chinn & Jaewoo Lee, 2002. "Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in the G-7 Countries," IMF Working Papers 02/130, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Malixi, Margaret, 1992. "More evidence on the J curve from LDCs," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 641-653, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Haynes, Stephen E & Stone, Joe A, 1982. "Impact of the Terms of Trade on the U.S. Trade Balance: A Reexamination," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 702-06, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Mohammad Pourheydarian, 1991. "The Australian J-Curve: A Reexamination," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 49-58, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. R. Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2003. "Is the J-Curve Effect Observable for Small North European Economies?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 119-134, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1998. "Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-109, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Alesina, A. & Gruen, D.W.R. & Jones, M.T., 1990. "Fiscal Adjustment, The Real Exchange Rate And Australian'S External Imbalance," CEPR Discussion Papers 233, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Social Sciences, Australian National University.
  18. Brissimis, Sophocles N. & Leventakis, John A., 1989. "The effectiveness of devaluation: A general equilibrium assessment with reference to Greece," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 247-271. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Kanta Marwah & Lawrence R. Klein, 1996. "Estimation of J-Curves: United States and Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 523-39, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Gerlach, Stefan, 1989. "Intertemporal speculation, devaluation, and the J-curve," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3-4), pages 335-345, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Ellen E. Meade, 1988. "Exchange rates, adjustment, and the J-curve," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 633-644.
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Marzieh Bolhasani, 2008. "The J-Curve: Evidence from commodity trade between Canada and the U.S," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 207-225, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2006. "Examining the relationship between trade balance and exchange rate: the case of China's trade with the USA," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 507-510, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. George Georgopoulos, 2008. "The J-curve Revisited: An Empirical Analysis for Canada," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 36(3), pages 315-332, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Nicolas Berman & Antoine Berthou, 2006. "Financial market imperfections and the impact of exchange rate movements on exports," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques bla06055, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2007. "The Bilateral J-curve: Turkey versus her 13 Trading Partners," MPRA Paper 3564, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Olivier, CARDI, 2005. "Another View of the J-Curve," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005029, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Marques, Luis B, 2007. "Welfare Implications of Exchange Rate Changes," MPRA Paper 5721, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ziesemer,Thomas, 2005. "How to cure the trade balance? Reducing budget deficits versus devaluations in the presence of J- and W-curves for Brazil," Research Memoranda 018, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology. [Downloadable!]
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