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Is there a J-Curve at the Industry Level?

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  • Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee

    ()
    (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee)

  • Zohre Ardalani

    ()
    (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee)

Abstract

There exits two groups of studies that have investigated the short-run and the long-run effects of currency depreciation on the trade balance. The first group has employed trade data at the aggregate level between one country and the rest of the world. The second group has used trade data at the bilateral level between one country and her major trading partners. Both groups have provided mixed conclusions. In this paper we employ import and export data at industry level. Sixty six industries in the U.S. (SITC Commodity Groupings) have been identified for which monthly data over the January 1991-August 2002 period are used in investigating the short-run and the long-run effects of real depreciation of the dollar. The results reveal evidence of the J-Curve effect only in six industries. However, the long-run favorable effect of real depreciation is supported in 22 industries

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 6 (2007)
Issue (Month): 26 ()
Pages: 1-12

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-07f30001

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References

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  1. Demirden, Tuvana & Pastine, Ivan, 1995. "Flexible exchange rates and the J-curve: An alternative approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 373-377, June.
  2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Janardhanan Alse, 1994. "Short-Run versus Long-Run Effects of Devaluation: Error-Correction Modeling and Cointegration," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 453-464, Fall.
  3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani, 2006. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Trade Flows: Evidence from Industry Data," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 542-559, January.
  4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  5. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1985. "Devaluation and the J-Curve: Some Evidence from LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 500-504, August.
  6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Artatrana Ratha, 2004. "The J-Curve: a literature review," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(13), pages 1377-1398.
  7. Noland, Marcus, 1989. "Japanese Trade Elasticities and the J-Curve," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 175-79, February.
  8. Felmingham, Bruce S, 1988. "Where Is the Australian J-Curve?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 43-56, January.
  9. Gerlach, Stefan, 1989. "Intertemporal speculation, devaluation, and the J-curve," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3-4), pages 335-345, November.
  10. Himarios, Daniel, 1985. "The effects of devaluation on the trade balance: A critical view and re- examination of Mile's `new results'," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 553-563, December.
  11. Rose, Andrew K. & Yellen, Janet L., 1989. "Is there a J-curve?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 53-68, July.
  12. Himarios, Daniel, 1989. "Do Devaluations Improve the Trade Balance? The Evidence Revisited," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(1), pages 143-68, January.
  13. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Taggert Brooks, 1999. "Bilateral J-Curve between U.S. and her trading partners," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 156-165, March.
  14. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Malixi, Margaret, 1992. "More evidence on the J curve from LDCs," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 641-653, October.
  15. Kanta Marwah & Lawrence R. Klein, 1996. "Estimation of J-Curves: United States and Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 523-39, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Rajarshi Mitra, 2009. "The J-Curve at the industry level: evidence from U.S.-India trade," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1520-1529.
  2. Baek, Jungho & Koo, Won W. & Mulik, Kranti, 2009. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Bilateral Trade Balance: The Case of U.S. Agriculture," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 38(2), October.

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