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A Primer on Real Effective Exchange Rates: Determinants, Overvaluation, Trade Flows and Competitive Devaluation

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Menzie Chinn ()

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Abstract

Several alternative measures of “effective†exchange rates are discussed in the context of their theoretical underpinnings and construction. Focusing on contemporary indices and recently-developed econometric methods, the empirical characteristics of these differing series are examined for the U.S., the euro area, and several East Asian countries. The issues that confront the applied economist or policymaker in using the measures of real effective exchange rates available are illustrated in several case studies from current interest: (i) evaluating exchange rate misalignment; (ii) testing the Balassa-Samuelson effect; (iii) estimating the price responsiveness of trade flows; and (iv) assessing the potential impact of competitive devaluations. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2006

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11079-006-5215-0
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 17 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 115-143
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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:17:y:2006:i:1:p:115-143

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Related research
Keywords: real effective exchange rate; overvaluation; competitiveness; stationarity; cointegration; trade balance;

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    Other versions:
  2. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael P. Dooley & Sona Shrestha, 1999. "Latin America and East Asia in the Context of an Insurance Model of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 7091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Eiji Ogawa & Takatoshi Ito, 2000. "On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement," NBER Working Papers 8002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Dominique Desruelle & Alessandro Zanello, 1997. "A Primer on the IMF's Information Notice System," IMF Working Papers 97/71, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Kano, Takashi, 1997. "International Price Linkage within a Region: The Case of East Asia," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 643-666, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Spilimbergo, Antonio & Vamvakidis, Athanasios, 2003. "Real effective exchange rate and the constant elasticity of substitution assumption," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 337-354, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Yin-Wong Cheung, 2003. "An Analysis of Hong Kong Export Performance," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series 1037, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Bryan Acree, 1999. "Revising the Atlanta Fed dollar index," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 40-51. [Downloadable!]
  9. Black, Stanley W, 1976. "Multilateral and Bilateral Measures of Effective Exchange Rates in a World Model of Traded Goods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 615-21, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Rose, Andrew K., 1991. "The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade : Does the 'Marshall-Lerner' condition hold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 301-316, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Ian Marsh & Stephen Tokarick, 1996. "An assessment of three measures of competitiveness," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 132(4), pages 700-722, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Charles Engel, 1999. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(3), pages 507-538, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Jeffrey Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andres Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," NBER Working Papers 5576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
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  22. Menzie Chinn, 2002. "Incomes, Exchange Rates and the U.S. Trade Deficit, Once Again," Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, Working Paper Series 1016, Center for Global, International and Regional Studies, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Ellen E. Meade, 1990. "Computers and the trade deficit: the case of the falling prices," International Finance Discussion Papers 378, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  24. Lee, Daniel Y., 1999. "Purchasing power parity and dynamic error correction: Evidence from Asia Pacific economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 199-212, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. Luca Buldorini & Stelios Makrydakis & Christian Thimann, 2002. "The effective exchange rates of the euro," Occasional Paper Series 02, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Menzie D. Chinn & Shang-Jin Wei, 2008. "A Faith-based Initiative: Does a Flexible Exchange Rate Regime Really Facilitate Current Account Adjustment?," NBER Working Papers 14420, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Yuan Xiao & Marialuz Moreno-Badia & Werner Schule & Herman Z. Bennett & Julio Escolano & Stefania Fabrizio & Eva Gutierrez & Bogdan Lissovolik & Stephen Tokarick & Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2008. "Competitiveness in the Southern Euro Area: France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain," IMF Working Papers 08/112, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  3. Raimundo Soto & Ibrahim A. Elbadawi., 2007. "Theory and Empirics of Real Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," Documentos de Trabajo 324, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
  4. Omar AlShehabi & Shuang Ding, 2008. "Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates for Armenia and Georgia," IMF Working Papers 08/110, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Qin, Duo, 2007. "Uncover Latent PPP by Dynamic Factor Error Correction Model (DF-ECM) Approach: Evidence from five OECD countries," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-29, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Udomkerdmongkol, Manop & Morrissey, Oliver & Gorg, Holger, 2008. "Exchange Rates and Outward Foreign Direct Investment: US FDI in Emerging Economies," Working Papers RP2008/102, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER). [Downloadable!]
  7. Pablo Astorga, 2007. "Real Exchange Rates in Latin America: what does the 20th Century reveal?," Working Papers in Economic History wp07-03, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Historia Económica e Instituciones. [Downloadable!]
  8. J. Peter Neary, 2006. "Measuring Competitiveness," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 37(2), pages 197-213. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  9. Joshua Aizenman & Daniel Riera-Crichton, 2006. "Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in the Era of Growing Financial and Trade Integration," NBER Working Papers 12363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Balázs Egert & Kirsten Lommatzsch & Amina Lahrèche-Révil, 2007. "Real Exchange Rates in Small Open OECD and Transition Economies: Comparing Apples with Oranges?," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Charles P. Thomas & Jaime Marquez, 2006. "Measurement matters for modeling U.S. import prices," International Finance Discussion Papers 883, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  12. Zarzosa Valdivia F.E., 2006. "Income Distribution, Dutch Disease and Real Exchange Rate movements," Working Papers 2006033, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Li, Ying & Rowe, Francis, 2007. "Aid inflows and the real effective exchange rate in Tanzania," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4456, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  14. Herman Z. Bennett & Ziga Zarnic, 2008. "International Competitiveness of the Mediterranean Quartet:A Heterogeneous-Product Approach," IMF Working Papers 08/240, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  15. David Norman, 2006. "Modelling Manufactured Exports: Evidence from Australian States," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-01, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
  16. Masao Ogaki & Sungwook Park, 2007. "Long-run real exchange rate changes and the properties of the variance of k-differences," Working Papers 07-05, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  17. Charles P. Thomas & Jaime Marquez & Sean Fahle, 2008. "Measuring U.S. international relative prices: a WARP view of the world," International Finance Discussion Papers 917, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  18. Antoine Berthou, 2008. "An investigation on the effect of real exchange rate movements on OECD bilateral exports," Working Paper Series 920, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  19. Raimundo Soto, 2008. "Unemployment and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Latin American Economies," Documentos de Trabajo 337, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile.. [Downloadable!]
  20. Robert Pollin & James Heintz, 2007. "Expanding Decent Employment in Kenya: The Role of Monetary Policy, Inflation Control, and the Exchange Rate," Country Study 6, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth. [Downloadable!]
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