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Incomes, Exchange Rates and the US Trade Deficit, Once Again

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  • Menzie D. Chinn

Abstract

The chronic and expanding US trade deficit has refocused attention upon the responsiveness of trade flows to exchange rate and income changes. I estimate import and export equations over a period spanning the 1990s New Economy boom and the subsequent recession and dollar depreciation. The results indicate (1) a low responsiveness of imports to exchange rate changes, and (2) a diminution (but not disappearance) of the income elasticity asymmetry first noted by Houthakker and Magee. The combination of low price elasticity of imports with the present size of the trade deficit means that any reduction of the trade deficit will necessarily be accompanied by large exchange rate and income trend adjustments. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2004

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal International Finance.

Volume (Year): 7 (2004)
Issue (Month): 3 (December)
Pages: 451-469

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Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:7:y:2004:i:3:p:451-469

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  1. Catherine L. Mann, 1999. "Is the U.S. Trade Deficit Sustainable?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 47.
  2. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May.
  3. Robert Z. Lawrence, 1990. "U.S. Current Account Adjustment: An Appraisal," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 343-392.
  4. Ellen E. Meade, 1991. "Computers and the Trade Deficit: The Case of the Falling Prices," NBER Chapters, in: International Economic Transactions: Issues in Measurement and Empirical Research, pages 61-88 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Karl Whelan, 2000. "A guide to the use of chain aggregated NIPA data," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2000-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  7. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2000. "Perspectives on OECD economic integration : implications for U.S. current account adjustment," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 169-208.
  8. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
  9. Paul Krugman, 1988. "Differences In Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 2761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Menzie David Chinn, 1991. "Beware of econometricians bearing estimates: Policy analysis in a “unit root” world," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 546-567.
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  12. Michael P. Leahy, 1998. "New summary measures of the foreign exchange value of the dollar," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Oct, pages 811-818.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Charles Engel, 2010. "Exchange rate policies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 229-250 Bank for International Settlements.
  2. Bosworth, Barry & Collins, Susan M., 2010. "Rebalancing the US Economy in a Postcrisis World," ADBI Working Papers 236, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  3. Kappler, Marcus & Reisen, Helmut & Schularick, Moritz & Turkisch, Edouard, 2011. "The macroeconomic effects of large exchange rate appreciations," Discussion Papers 2011/3, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  4. Yoko Oguro, 2007. "The Influence of Intra-Industry Trade on Export Sensitivity to Exchange Rates," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d07-222, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  5. Joseph W. Gruber & Steven B. Kamin, 2005. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," International Finance Discussion Papers 846, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Dong, Wei, 2012. "The role of expenditure switching in the global imbalance adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 237-251.
  7. Lim, Sokchea & Khun, Channary, 2010. "U.S. Bilateral Trade Deficits with China and Japan: The Role of Japanese Direct Investment," MPRA Paper 30740, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Knobel, Alexander, 2011. "Estimation of import demand function in Russia," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 24(4), pages 3-26.
  9. Bornali Bhandari, 2013. "Cross-Price Effects and US Trade Elasticities," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 7(3), pages 273-313, August.
  10. Victor Pontines & Reza Siregar, 2012. "Episodes of Large Exchange Rate Appreciations and Reserves Accumulations in Selected Asian Economies: Is Fear of Appreciation Justified?," CAMA Working Papers 2012-31, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  11. Yoko Oguro & Kyoji Fukao & Yougesh Khatri, 2008. "Trade Sensitivity to Exchange Rates in the Context of Intra-Industry Trade," IMF Working Papers 08/134, International Monetary Fund.
  12. ANDO Mitsuyo & IRIYAMA Akie, 2009. "International Production Networks and Export/Import Responsiveness to Exchange Rates: The case of Japanese manufacturing firms," Discussion papers 09049, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  13. Nie, Jun & Taylor, Lisa, 2013. "Economic growth in foreign regions and U.S. export growth," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 31-63.
  14. Joseph Gruber & Steven Kamin, 2009. "Do Differences in Financial Development Explain the Global Pattern of Current Account Imbalances?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(4), pages 667-688, 09.
  15. Gruber, Joseph W. & Kamin, Steven B., 2007. "Explaining the global pattern of current account imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 500-522, June.

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