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Speculative Growth: Hints from the US Economy

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Author Info
Ricardo Caballero
Emmanuel Farhi
Mohamad L. Hammour

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Abstract

We propose a framework for understanding recurrent historical episodes of vigorous economic expansion accompanied by extreme asset valuations, as exhibited by the U.S. in the 1990s. We interpret this phenomenon as a high-valuation equilibrium with a low effective cost of capital based on optimism about the future availability of funds for investment. The key to the sustainability of such an equilibrium is feedback from increased growth to an increase in the supply of effective funding. We show that such feedback arises naturally when an expansion comes with technological progress in the capital producing sector, when fiscal rules generate sustained fiscal surpluses, when the rest of the world has lower expansion potential, and when financial constraints are relaxed by the expansion itself. Arguably, these ingredients were all simultaneously present in the U.S. during the 1990s. We also show that such expansions can be welfare improving but they can crash. The latter is more likely if bubbles develop along the expansionary path. These (rational) bubbles can emerge even when the interest rate exceeds the rate of growth of the economy.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 10518.

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Date of creation: May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10518

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D0 - Microeconomics - - General
D9 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice and Growth

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References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Olivier, Jacques, 2000. "Growth-Enhancing Bubbles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(1), pages 133-51, February.
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  1. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2005. "The Dot-Com Bubble the Bush Deficits, and the U.S. Current Account," NBER Working Papers 11543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Marcel Fratzscher & Luciana Juvenal & Lucio Sarno, 2007. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," Working Paper Series 790, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2006. "An Equilibrium Model of "Global Imbalances" and Low Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 11996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Arce, Oscar & López-Salido, J David, 2008. "Housing Bubbles," CEPR Discussion Papers 6932, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Murillo Campello & John Graham, 2007. "Do Stock Prices Influence Corporate Decisions? Evidence from the Technology Bubble," NBER Working Papers 13640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi & Filipa Sa, 2005. "The U.S. Current Account and the Dollar," NBER Working Papers 11137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Óscar J. Arce & J. David López-Salido, 2008. "Housing bubbles," Banco de España Working Papers 0815, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
  8. Hian Teck Hoon & Edmund S. Phelps, 2006. "Effects of Technological Improvement in the Ict-Producing Sector on Business Activity," Discussion Papers 0506-21, Columbia University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Kevin J. Lansing, 2008. "Speculative bubbles and overreaction to technological innovation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun 20. [Downloadable!]
  10. Arce, Oscar & López-Salido, J David, 2006. "House Prices, Rents and Interest Rates Under Collateral Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 5689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2005. "Bubbles and Capital Flow Volatility: Causes and Risk Management," NBER Working Papers 11618, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Sebastian Edwards, 2005. "Is the U.S. Current Account Deficit Sustainable? And If Not, How Costly is Adjustment Likely To Be?," NBER Working Papers 11541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Kevin J. Lansing, 2008. "Speculative growth and overreaction to technology shocks," Working Paper Series 2008-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  14. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2006. "On the Macroeconomics of Asset Shortages," NBER Working Papers 12753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Hoon Hian Teck & Edmund S. Phelps, 2006. "ICT-Producing Sector on Business Activity," Working Papers 07-2006, Singapore Management University, School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. George-Marios Angeletos, 2008. "Private Sunspots and Idiosyncratic Investor Sentiment," NBER Working Papers 14015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. George-Marios Angeletos & Guido Lorenzoni & Alessandro Pavan, 2007. "Wall Street and Silicon Valley: A Delicate Interaction," NBER Working Papers 13475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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