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Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined

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  • Menzie D. Chinn

Abstract

This paper examines the stability of import and export demand functions for the United States over the 1975q1-2001q2 period. Using the Johansen maximum likelihood approach, an export demand function is readily identified. In contrast, there appears to be a structural break in the import demand function in 1995; specifications incorporating this break pass tests for cointegration, although the price elasticity is not statistically significant. Only when excluding computers and parts from the import series is a stable import demand function detected. The resulting point estimates do not exhibit the income asymmetry typically found in other studies of aggregate U.S. trade flows.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9521.

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Date of creation: Mar 2003
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Publication status: published as Menzie D. Chinn, 2005. "Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 460-485, October.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9521

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  10. Boyd, Derick & Caporale, Gugielmo Maria & Smith, Ron, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 187-200, July.
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  14. Rose, Andrew K., 1991. "The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade : Does the 'Marshall-Lerner' condition hold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 301-316, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Diego Bastourre & Luis Casanova & Alejo Espora, 2011. "Tipo de Cambio Real y Crecimiento: Síntesis de la Evidencia y Agenda de Investigación," Department of Economics, Working Papers 082, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
  2. Claudio H. Dos Santos & Anwar M. Shaikh & Gennaro Zezza, 2003. "Measures of the Real GDP of U.S. Trading Partners: Methodology and Results," International Trade 0309021, EconWPA.
  3. Blanchard, Olivier & Giavazzi, Francesco & Sa, Filipa, 2005. "The US Current Account and the Dollar," CEPR Discussion Papers 4888, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. ANDO Mitsuyo & IRIYAMA Akie, 2009. "International Production Networks and Export/Import Responsiveness to Exchange Rates: The case of Japanese manufacturing firms," Discussion papers 09049, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  5. Margarita Katsimi & Thomas Moutos, 2006. "Inequality and the US Import Demand Function," CESifo Working Paper Series 1827, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Chinn, Menzie D., 2010. "Supply Capacity, Vertical Specialisation andTrade Costs: The Implications for Aggreagate US Trade Flow Equations," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 14, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  7. Panayiotis P. Athanasoglou & Ioanna C. Bardaka, 2008. "Price and Non - Price Competitiveness of Exports of Manufactures," Working Papers 69, Bank of Greece.
  8. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance E., 2007. "The exchange rate and machinery and equipment imports: Identifying the impact of import source and export destination country currency valuation changes," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-21, February.
  9. Athanasoglou, Panayiotis P. & Bardaka, Ioanna C., 2010. "New trade theory, non-price competitiveness and export performance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 217-228, January.
  10. Jongwanich, Juthathip, 2009. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate, Misalignment, and Export Performance in Developing Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 151, Asian Development Bank.
  11. THORBECKE, Willem, 2009. "Can East Asia be an Engine of Growth for the World Economy?," Discussion papers 09006, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  12. Mizanur RAHMAN & Willem THORBECKE, 2007. "How Would China's Exports be Affected by a Unilateral Appreciation of the RMB and a Joint Appreciation of Countries Supplying Intermediate Imports?," Discussion papers 07012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  13. Yoko Oguro & Kyoji Fukao & Yougesh Khatri, 2008. "Trade Sensitivity to Exchange Rates in the Context of Intra-Industry Trade," IMF Working Papers 08/134, International Monetary Fund.
  14. Janet Ceglowski, 2014. "Has Trade Become More Responsive to Income? Assessing the Evidence for US Imports," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 225-241, April.
  15. Anwar Shaikh & Gennaro Zezza & Claudio dos Santos, . "Is International Growth the Way Out of U.S. Current Account Deficits? A Note of Caution," Economics Policy Note Archive 03-6, Levy Economics Institute.
  16. Yoko Oguro, 2007. "The Influence of Intra-Industry Trade on Export Sensitivity to Exchange Rates," Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series d07-222, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  17. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Sallenave, Audrey, 2014. "The impact of real exchange rates adjustments on global imbalances: A multilateral approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 149-163.

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