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Doomed to Deficits? Aggregate U.S. Trade Flows Re-Examined

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Menzie D. Chinn

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Abstract

This paper examines the stability of import and export demand functions for the United States over the 1975q1-2001q2 period. Using the Johansen maximum likelihood approach, an export demand function is readily identified. In contrast, there appears to be a structural break in the import demand function in 1995; specifications incorporating this break pass tests for cointegration, although the price elasticity is not statistically significant. Only when excluding computers and parts from the import series is a stable import demand function detected. The resulting point estimates do not exhibit the income asymmetry typically found in other studies of aggregate U.S. trade flows.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9521.

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Date of creation: Mar 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9521

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F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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  3. Paul Krugman, 1989. "Differences In Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 2761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  5. Rose, Andrew K., 1991. "The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade : Does the 'Marshall-Lerner' condition hold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 301-316, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Boyd, Derick & Caporale, Gugielmo Maria & Smith, Ron, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 187-200, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
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  10. Ellen E. Meade, 1990. "Computers and the trade deficit: the case of the falling prices," International Finance Discussion Papers 378, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Houthakker, Hendrik S & Magee, Stephen P, 1969. "Income and Price Elasticities in World Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(2), pages 111-25, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi & Filipa Sa, 2005. "The U.S. Current Account and the Dollar," NBER Working Papers 11137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. ANDO Mitsuyo & IRIYAMA Akie, 2009. "International Production Networks and Export/Import Responsiveness to Exchange Rates: The case of Japanese manufacturing firms," Discussion papers 09049, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  3. Anwar Shaikh & Gennaro Zezza & Claudio dos Santos, . "Is International Growth the Way Out of U.S. Current Account Deficits? A Note of Caution," Economics Policy Note Archive 03-6, Levy Economics Institute, The. [Downloadable!]
  4. Panayiotis P. Athanasoglou & Ioanna C. Bardaka, 2008. "Price and Non - Price Competitiveness of Exports of Manufactures," Working Papers 69, Bank of Greece. [Downloadable!]
  5. Claudio H. Dos Santos & Anwar M. Shaikh & Gennaro Zezza, 2003. "Measures of the Real GDP of U.S. Trading Partners: Methodology and Results," International Trade 0309021, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Mizanur RAHMAN & Willem THORBECKE, 2007. "How Would China's Exports be Affected by a Unilateral Appreciation of the RMB and a Joint Appreciation of Countries Supplying Intermediate Imports?," Discussion papers 07012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI). [Downloadable!]
  7. Yoko Oguro & Kyoji Fukao & Yougesh Khatri, 2008. "Trade Sensitivity to Exchange Rates in the Context of Intra-Industry Trade," IMF Working Papers 08/134, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Yin-Wong Cheung, 2003. "An Analysis of Hong Kong Export Performance," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series 1037, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Margarita Katsimi & Thomas Moutos, 2006. "Inequality and the US Import Demand Function," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  10. Adam, Antonis / Katsimi, Margarita / Moutos, Thomas, 2008. "Inequality and the Import Demand Function," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  11. repec:bep:mactop:v:6:y:2006:i:3:p:1454-1454 is not listed on IDEAS
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