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A Portfolio Theory of International Capital Flows

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Author Info
Devereux, Michael B
Saito, Makoto

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Abstract

Recent global imbalances and large gross external financial movements have raised interest in modeling the relationship between international financial market structure and capital flows. This paper constructs a model in which the composition of national portfolios is an essential element in facilitating international capital flows. Each country chooses an optimal portfolio in face of real and nominal risk. Current account deficits are financed by net capital flows which reflect differential movements in the holdings of gross external assets and liabilities. A country experiencing a current account deficit will be accumulating both gross external liabilities and gross external assets. Net capital flows generate movements in risk premiums such that the rate of return on a debtor country's gross liabilities is lower than the return on its gross assets. This ensures stability of the world wealth distribution. An attractive feature of the model is that portfolio shares, returns, and the wealth distribution can be characterized analytically. A calibrated version of the model can match quite well the observed measures of gross and net external assets and liabilities for the US economy.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5746.

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Date of creation: Jul 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5746

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Related research
Keywords: current account international capital flows portfolio

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The intertemporal approach to the current account," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1731-1799 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Baxter, Marianne & Jermann, Urban J, 1997. "The International Diversification Puzzle Is Worse Than You Think," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 170-80, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri, 2004. "The international diversification puzzle is not as bad as you think," 2004 Meeting Papers 152, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2004. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Working Papers 10869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Maurice Obstfeld, 2004. "External Adjustment," NBER Working Papers 10843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Global Implications of Self-Oriented National Monetary Rules," Macroeconomics 0303018, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Kollmann, Robert, 2006. "International Portfolio Equilibrium and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 5512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Philip R. Lane & G Milesi-Feretti, 2004. "Financial Globalization and Exchange Rates," CEP Discussion Papers dp0662, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1990. "Business cycles: real facts and a monetary myth," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 3-18. [Downloadable!]
  10. Charles Engel & Akito Matsumoto, 2005. "Portfolio Choice in a Monetary Open-Economy DSGE Model," IMF Working Papers 05/165, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Cedric Tille, 2005. "Financial integration and the wealth effect of exchange rate fluctuations," Staff Reports 226, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Michael P. Dooley & Peter Isard, 1979. "The portfolio-balance model of exchange rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  13. Philip Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2001. "THE EXTERNAL WEALTH OF NATIONS: Measures of Foreign Assets and Liabilities For Industrial and Developing Countries," CEG Working Papers 20012, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2005. "International Financial Adjustment," International Finance 0505004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Pavlova, Anna & Rigobon, Roberto, 2003. "Asset Prices and Exchange Rates," Working papers 4322-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Saito, Makoto, 1997. "A note on ergodic distributions in two-agent economies," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 133-141, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Neumeyer, Pablo Andres, 1998. "Currencies and the Allocation of Risk: The Welfare Effects of a Monetary Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 246-59, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2006. "Are Valuation Effects Desirable from a Global Perspective?," NBER Working Papers 12219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Lane, Philip R. & Shambaugh, Jay C, 2007. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," CEPR Discussion Papers 6473, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Tomas Dvorak & Francis E. Warnock, 2007. "The Stability of Large External Imbalances: The Role of Returns Differentials," NBER Working Papers 13074, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Marques, Luis B, 2007. "Welfare Implications of Exchange Rate Changes," MPRA Paper 5721, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Kollmann, Robert, 2006. "International Portfolio Equilibrium and the Current Account," CEPR Discussion Papers 5512, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Cedric Tille, 2005. "Financial integration and the wealth effect of exchange rate fluctuations," Staff Reports 226, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Tomas Dvorak & Francis Warnock, 2007. "Cross-border returns differentials," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 04, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
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