What Drives US Foreign Borrowing? Evidence on the External Adjustment to Transitory and Permanent Shocks
AbstractThe joint dynamics of US net output, consumption, and (the market value of) foreign assets and liabilities, characterized empirically following Lettau and Ludvigson (2004), is shown to be consistent with current account theory. US consumption is virtually insulated from transitory shocks, while these contribute to variations in net output and gross foreign positions--consumption is smoothed against temporary fluctuations in returns. A single permanent shock--naturally interpreted as a supply shock--raises consumption swiftly while causing net output to adjust gradually. This leads to persistent, procyclical external deficits, while moving gross assets and liabilities in the same direction. (JEL E21, E23, F32, F34)
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.
Volume (Year): 102 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
- E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
- F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
- F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Hoffman, Mathias, 2001.
"The Relative Dynamics of Investment and the Current Account in the G7-Economies,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages C148-63, May.
- Hoffmann, Mathias, 2000. "The relative dynamics of investment and the current account in the G-7 economies," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0005, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
- Ghosh, Atish R, 1995. "International Capital Mobility amongst the Major Industrialised Countries: Too Little or Too Much?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(428), pages 107-28, January.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
- Hoffmann, Mathias, 1999.
"International macroeconomic fluctuations and the current account,"
Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics
9915, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
- Mathias Hoffmann, 2003. "International macroeconomic fluctuations and the current account," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(2), pages 401-420, May.
- Palumbo, Michael & Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2006.
"On the Relationships Between Real Consumption, Income, and Wealth,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 1-11, January.
- Michael Palumbo & Jeremy Rudd & Karl Whelan, 2002. "On the relationships between real consumption, income and wealth," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Palumbo, Michael & Rudd, Jeremy & Whelan, Karl, 2002. "On the Relationships Between Real Consumption, Income, and Wealth," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/02, Central Bank of Ireland.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Ng, Serena, 2001.
"A systematic framework for analyzing the dynamic effects of permanent and transitory shocks,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1527-1546, October.
- Gonzalo, J. & Ng, S., 1996. "A Systematic Framework for Analyzing the Dynamic Effects of Permanent and Transitory Shocks," Cahiers de recherche 9603, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Gonzalo, J. & Ng, S., 1996. "A Systematic Framework for Analyzing the Dynamic Effects of Permanent and Transitory Shocks," Cahiers de recherche 9603, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- David K. Backus & Gregor W. Smith, 1993.
"Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Dynamic Economies with Non-Traded Goods,"
1252, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Backus, David K. & Smith, Gregor W., 1993. "Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3-4), pages 297-316, November.
- P. Jacob & G. Peersman, 2008.
"Dissecting the Dynamics of the US Trade Balance in an Estimated Equilibrium Model,"
Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium
08/544, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Jacob, Punnoose & Peersman, Gert, 2013. "Dissecting the dynamics of the US trade balance in an estimated equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 302-315.
- Punnoose Jacob & Gert Peersman, 2013. "Dissecting the dynamics of the US trade balance in an estimated equilibrium model," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2013/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
- Punnoose Jacob & Gert Peersman, 2012. "Dissecting the dynamics of the US trade balance in an estimated equilibrium model," Working Paper Research 226, National Bank of Belgium.
- Evans, Martin, 2014. "External Balances, Trade Flows and Financial Conditions," MPRA Paper 55644, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Stefan Notz & Peter Rosenkranz, 2014. "Business cycles in emerging markets: the role of liability dollarization and valuation effects," ECON - Working Papers 163, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
- What Drives US Foreign Borrowing? Evidence on the External Adjustment to Transitory and Permanent Shocks (AER 2012) in ReplicationWiki
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jane Voros) or (Michael P. Albert).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.