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Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange Rate Forecasting

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Author Info
Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER) and Richard K. Lyons(U.C. Berkeley and NBER, Haas School of Business) () (Department of Economics, Georgetown University)

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Abstract

This paper compares the true, ex-ante forecasting performance of a micro-based model against both a standard macro model and a random walk. In contrast to existing literature, which is focused on longer horizon forecasting, we examine forecasting over horizons from one day to one month (the one-month horizon being where micro and macro analysis begin to overlap). Over our 3-year forecasting sample, we find that the micro-based model consistently out-performs both the random walk and the macro model. Micro-based forecasts account for almost 16 per cent of the sample variance in monthly spot rate changes. These results provide a level of empirical validation as yet unattained by other models. Though our micro-based model out-performs the macro model, this does not imply that past macro analysis has overlooked key fundamentals: our structural interpretation using a fundamentals-based model shows that our findings are consistent with exchange rates being driven by standard fundamentals. Classification-JEL Codes:F3, F4, G1

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Paper provided by Georgetown University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number gueconwpa~05-05-01.

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Handle: RePEc:geo:guwopa:gueconwpa~05-05-01

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Keywords: Exchange rates forecasting Meese and Rogoff microstructure order flow

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & H. Wright, Jonathan, 2003. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 35-59, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  4. Martin D.D. Evans, 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macro Economy," NBER Working Papers 11064, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie David Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2004. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," IMF Working Papers 04/73, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Charles Engel and Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
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  7. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2002. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(1), pages 170-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Vega, Clara, 2002. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," Working Papers 02-16, Duke University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1989. "P*: not the inflation forecaster's holy grail," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 3-18. [Downloadable!]
  10. Mark, Nelson C, 1995. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 201-18, March.
  11. Torben G. Andersen et al., 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Accounting for Exchange-Rate Variability in Present-Value Models When the Discount Factor Is Near 1," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 119-125, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Lyons, Richard K., 1997. "A simultaneous trade model of the foreign exchange hot potato," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-4), pages 275-298, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Rey, Hélène, 2005. "International Financial Adjustment," CEPR Discussion Papers 4923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Reitz, Stefan & Schmidt, Markus & Taylor, Mark P., 2007. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kathryn Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2005. "What Defines "News" in Foreign Exchange Markets?," NBER Working Papers 11769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Takatoshi Ito & Yuko Hashimoto, 2006. "Price Impacts of Deals and Predictability of the Exchange Rate Movements," NBER Working Papers 12682, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Nikola Gradojevic & Christopher J. Neely, 2008. "The dynamic interaction of order flows and the CAD/USD exchange rate," Working Papers 2008-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Leon, Hyginus & Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 5527, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Joshua V. Rosenberg & Leah G. Traub, 2006. "Price discovery in the foreign currency futures and spot market," Staff Reports 262, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
  8. Kathryn Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2005. "What Defines 'News' in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Papers 547, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan. [Downloadable!]
  9. Menkhoff, Lukas & Schmeling, Maik, 2007. "Whose trades convey information? Evidence from a cross-section of traders," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-357, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  10. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Understanding Order Flow," NBER Working Papers 11748, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Osler, Carol & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2006. "Price Discovery in Currency Markets," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-351, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  12. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2006. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 12560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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