We propose a new explanation for the forward-premium and the delayed-overshooting puzzles. Both puzzles arise from a systematic under-reaction of short-term interest rate forecasts to current innovations. Accordingly, the forward premium is always a biased predictor of future depreciation; the bias can be so severe as to lead to negative coefficients in the ‘Fama’ regression; delayed overshooting may or may not occur depending upon the persistence of interest rate innovations and the degree of under-reaction; lastly, for G-7 countries against the US, these puzzles can be rationalized for values of the model's parameters that match empirical estimates.
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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Other versions:
Culter, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990.
"Speculative Dynamics,"
Working papers
544, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
Cutler, David M & Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1991.
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