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Output and expected returns

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  • Rangvid, Jesper
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Economics.

    Volume (Year): 81 (2006)
    Issue (Month): 3 (September)
    Pages: 595-624

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:81:y:2006:i:3:p:595-624

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505576

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    2. Pagano, Marco & Panetta, Fabio & Zingales, Luigi, 1996. "Why Do Companies Go Public? An Empirical Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 1332, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    4. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2001. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: A Cross-Sectional Test When Risk Premia Are Time-Varying," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 109(6), pages 1238-1287, December.
    5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411.
    8. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda & Skinner, Douglas J., 2004. "Are dividends disappearing? Dividend concentration and the consolidation of earnings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 425-456, June.
    9. John Y. Campbell & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Efficient Tests of Stock Return Predictability," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1972, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    10. Valkanov, Rossen, 2003. "Long-horizon regressions: theoretical results and applications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 201-232, May.
    11. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
    12. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
    13. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "What Moves Stock Prices?," NBER Working Papers 2538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    15. Brian J. Hall & Kevin J. Murphy, 2003. "The Trouble with Stock Options," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 49-70, Summer.
    16. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, . "Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics or Lower Propensity to Pay?."," CRSP working papers 509, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    17. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 2003. "Expected Returns and Expected Dividend Growth," NBER Working Papers 9605, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 2001. "Valuation Ratios and the Long-Run Stock Market Outlook: An Update," NBER Working Papers 8221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2006. "Labor Income and Predictable Stock Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(1), pages 1-44.
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    22. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    23. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
    24. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    25. James H. Stock, 1991. "Confidence Intervals for the Largest Autoresgressive Root in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Technical Working Papers 0105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1509, 08.
    27. Cochrane, John H, 1994. "Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(1), pages 241-65, February.
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    30. Brian J. Hall & Kevin J. Murphy, 2003. "The Trouble with Stock Options," NBER Working Papers 9784, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86.
    32. Lior Menzly & Tano Santos & Pietro Veronesi, 2004. "Understanding Predictability," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-47, February.
    33. Horvath, Michael T.K. & Watson, Mark W., 1995. "Testing for Cointegration When Some of the Cointegrating Vectors are Prespecified," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 984-1014, October.
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    Cited by:
    1. Alfonso Mendoza Velázquez & Peter N. Smith, 2013. "Equity Returns and the Business Cycle: The Role of Supply and Demand Shocks," CAMA Working Papers 2013-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2008. "Expected Inflation, Expected Stock Returns, and Money Illusion: What can we learn from Survey Expectations?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-036, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    3. Stig V. Møller & Jesper Rangvid, 2012. "End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns," CREATES Research Papers 2012-42, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
    4. Bouaddi, Mohammed & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2013. "Portfolio selection in a data-rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2943-2962.
    5. Nicholas Apergis & James E. Payne, 2013. "New Evidence on the Information and Predictive Content of the Baltic Dry Index," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(3), pages 62-80, July.
    6. Tom Engsted & Stuart Hyde & Stig V. Møller, 2007. "Habit Formation, Surplus Consumption and Return Predictability: International Evidence," CREATES Research Papers 2007-31, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
    7. Man Fu & Prasad V. Bidarkota, 2011. "Periodically Collapsing Bubbles in Stock Prices Cointegrated with Broad Dividends and Macroeconomic Factors," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(1), pages 97-132, December.
    8. Schrimpf, Andreas, 2010. "International stock return predictability under model uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 1256-1282, November.
    9. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Rohloff, Sebastian, 2014. "The international business cycle and gold-price fluctuations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 292-305.
    10. Branger, Nicole & Larsen, Linda Sandris & Munk, Claus, 2013. "Robust portfolio choice with ambiguity and learning about return predictability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1397-1411.
    11. João Sousa & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S," Working Papers w201119, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    12. Günter Franke & Thomas Weber, 2006. "Wieweit tragen rationale Modelle in der Finanzmarktforschung?," CoFE Discussion Paper 06-09, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
    13. Hsu, Po-Hsuan, 2009. "Technological innovations and aggregate risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 264-279, November.
    14. Rangvid, Jesper & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2009. "Higher-order beliefs among professional stock market forecasters: some first empirical tests," ZEW Discussion Papers 09-042, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    15. Mathias Hoffmann & Wei Liao, 2011. "The Cross-Section of Country News, Decoupling Expectations, and Global Business Cycles," Working Papers 342011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    16. Mohammed Bouaddi & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2012. "Portfolio risk management in a data-rich environment," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 469-494, December.

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