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Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability

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  • West, Kenneth D
  • McCracken, Michael W

Abstract

The authors develop regression-based tests of hypotheses about out of sample prediction errors. Representative tests include ones for zero mean and zero correlation between a prediction error and a vector of predictors. The relevant environments are ones in which predictions depend on estimated parameters. The authors show that standard regression statistics generally fail to account for errors introduced by estimation of these parameters. They propose computationally convenient test statistics that properly account for such errors. Simulations indicate that the procedures can work well in samples of size typically available, although there sometimes are substantial size distortions. Copyright 1998 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 39 (1998)
Issue (Month): 4 (November)
Pages: 817-40

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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:39:y:1998:i:4:p:817-40

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  1. Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Asymptotic Inference About Predictive Ability," Macroeconomics 9410002, EconWPA.
  2. Kenneth D. West & David W. Wilcox, 1994. "A Comparison of Alternative Instrumental Variables Estimators of Dynamic Linear Model," Macroeconomics 9410001, EconWPA.
  3. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-44, January.
  4. Hoffman, Dennis L & Pagan, Adrian R, 1989. "Post-Sample Prediction Tests for Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(3), pages 333-43, August.
  5. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1980. "Model Specification Tests Based on Artificial Linear Regressions," Working Papers 390, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  6. Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May.
  7. Howrey, E Philip & Klein, Lawrence R & McCarthy, Michael D, 1974. "Notes on Testing the Predictive Performance of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(2), pages 366-83, June.
  8. Kenneth D. West & David W. Wilcox, 1995. "A Comparison of Alternative Instruments Variables Estimators of a Dynamic Linear Model," NBER Technical Working Papers 0176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Chong, Yock Y & Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 671-90, August.
  10. West, K.D. & Cho, D., 1993. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," Working papers 9317, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  11. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 631-53, October.
  12. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
  13. Allen N. Berger & Spencer D. Krane, 1983. "The informational efficiency of econometric model forecasts," Research Papers in Banking and Financial Economics 67, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  14. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  15. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July.
  16. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  17. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1990. "A Unified Approach to Robust, Regression-Based Specification Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 17-43, March.
  18. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 1-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Pagan, A.R. & Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," Papers 89-02, Rochester, Business - General.
  20. Todd E. Clark, 1996. "Finite-sample properties of tests for forecast equivalence," Research Working Paper 96-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  21. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  22. repec:cup:etheor:v:6:y:1990:i:1:p:17-43 is not listed on IDEAS
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