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Regression-Based Tests of Predictive Ability

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  • West, K.D.
  • McCracken, M.W.

Abstract

We develop regression-based tests of hypotheses about out of sample prediction errors. Representative tests include ones for zero mean and zero correlation between a prediction error and a vector of predictors. The relevant environments are ones in which predictions depend on estimated parameters. We show that standard regression statistics generally fail to account for error introduced by estimation of these parameters. We propose computationally convenient test statistics that properly account for such error. Simulations indicate that the procedures can work well in samples of size typically available, although there sometimes are substantial size distortions.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems in its series Working papers with number 9710.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:att:wimass:9710

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Postal: UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON, SOCIAL SYSTEMS RESEARCH INSTITUTE(S.S.R.I.), MADISON WISCONSIN 53706 U.S.A.

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Keywords: TESTS ; FORECASTS ; ECONOMIC MODELS;

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References

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  1. repec:att:wimass:9220 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Russell Davidson & James G. MacKinnon, 1981. "Model Specification Tests Based on Artificial Linear Regressions," Working Papers 426, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Hoffman, D. & Pagan, A., 1988. "Post-Sample Prediction Tests For Generalized Method Of Moment Estimators," RCER Working Papers 129, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  4. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  5. West, Kenneth D, 1996. "Asymptotic Inference about Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1067-84, September.
  6. Berger, Allen N & Krane, Spencer D, 1985. "The Information Efficiency of Econometric Model Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(1), pages 128-34, February.
  7. West, K.D. & Cho, D., 1993. "The Predictive Ability of Several Models of Exchange Rate Volatility," Working papers 9317r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  8. Jacob A. Mincer & Victor Zarnowitz, 1969. "The Evaluation of Economic Forecasts," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance, pages 1-46 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
  10. Pagan, A.R. & Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," Papers 89-02, Rochester, Business - General.
  11. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  12. Todd E. Clark, 1996. "Finite-sample properties of tests for forecast equivalence," Research Working Paper 96-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  13. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  14. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Diebold, Francis X. & Nason, James A., 1990. "Nonparametric exchange rate prediction?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3-4), pages 315-332, May.
  17. Kenneth D. West & David W. Wilcox, 1995. "A Comparison of Alternative Instruments Variables Estimators of a Dynamic Linear Model," NBER Technical Working Papers 0176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. repec:cup:etheor:v:6:y:1990:i:1:p:17-43 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-67, July.
  20. Howrey, E Philip & Klein, Lawrence R & McCarthy, Michael D, 1974. "Notes on Testing the Predictive Performance of Econometric Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(2), pages 366-83, June.
  21. Chong, Yock Y & Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 671-90, August.
  22. repec:att:wimass:9414 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Kenneth D. West & David W. Wilcox, 1994. "A Comparison of Alternative Instrumental Variables Estimators of Dynamic Linear Model," Macroeconomics 9410001, EconWPA.
  24. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 1990. "A Unified Approach to Robust, Regression-Based Specification Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(01), pages 17-43, March.
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