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Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?

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  • Domenico Ferraro
  • Ken Rogoff
  • Barbara Rossi

Abstract

This paper investigates whether oil prices have a reliable and stable out-of-sample relationship with the Canadian/U.S. dollar nominal exchange rate. Despite state-of-the-art methodologies, the authors find little systematic relation between oil prices and the exchange rate at the monthly and quarterly frequencies. In contrast, the main contribution is to show the existence of a very short-term relationship at the daily frequency, which is rather robust and holds no matter whether the authors use contemporaneous (realized) or lagged oil prices in their regression. However, in the latter case the predictive ability is ephemeral, mostly appearing after instabilities have been appropriately taken into account.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia in its series Working Papers with number 11-34.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:11-34

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Keywords: Foreign exchange rates ; Economic forecasting;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Hui Jun Zhang & Jean-Marie Dufour & John Galbraith, 2013. "Exchange rates and commodity prices: measuring causality at multiple horizons," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-39, CIRANO.
  2. Felício, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira & Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2013. "Common factors and the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case," Insper Working Papers wpe_318, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  3. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George, 2013. "Predictability of currency carry trades and asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 139-163.
  4. Yi Zhang, 2013. "The Links between the Price of Oil and the Value of US Dollar," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(4), pages 341 - 351.
  5. Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Ayachi, Fethi, 2012. "Another Look at the Interaction Between Oil Price Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility: The Case of Small Open Economies," MPRA Paper 49144, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2012.
  6. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
  7. Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2014. "The Usefulness of Financial Variables in Predicting Exchange Rate Movements," Insper Working Papers wpe_332, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  8. Zied Ftiti & Aviral Tiwari & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2014. "Oil price and macroeconomy in India - An evolutionary cospectral coherence approach," Working Papers 2014-068, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  9. Sévi, Benoît & Le Pen, Yannick, 2013. "Futures trading and the excess comovement of commodity prices," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/11382, Paris Dauphine University.
  10. Francesco Ravazzolo & Marco J. Lombardi, 2012. "Oil price density forecasts: Exploring the linkages with stock markets," Working Papers 0008, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
  11. Dunis, Christian & Kellard, Neil M. & Snaith, Stuart, 2013. "Forecasting EUR–USD implied volatility: The case of intraday data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4943-4957.
  12. Yu-chin Chen & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Are the Commodity Currencies an Exception to the Rule?," Working Papers UWEC-2006-28, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2012.
  13. Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2013. "Liquidity and Exchange Rates," Insper Working Papers wpe_325, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  14. repec:ipg:wpaper:19 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2013. "On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: implications for portfolio allocation," BIS Working Papers 420, Bank for International Settlements.

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