A common view in the literature is that the effect of energy price shocks on macroeconomic aggregates is asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases. We show that widely used asymmetric vector autoregressive models of the transmission of energy price shocks are misspecified, resulting in inconsistent parameter estimates, and that the implied impulse responses have been routinely computed incorrectly. As a result, the quantitative importance of unanticipated energy price increases for the U.S. economy has been exaggerated. In response to this problem, we develop alternative regression models and methods of computing responses to energy price shocks that yield consistent estimates regardless of the degree of asymmetry. We also introduce improved tests of the null hypothesis of symmetry in the responses to energy price increases and decreases. An empirical study reveals little evidence against the null hypothesis of symmetry in the responses to energy price shocks. Our analysis also has direct implications for the theoretical literature on the transmission of energy price shocks and for the debate about policy responses to energy price shocks.
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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number
7284.
Find related papers by JEL classification: C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
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Roberto Rigobon & Thomas M. Stoker, 2007.
"Estimation With Censored Regressors: Basic Issues,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1441-1467, November.
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