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Lutz Kilian

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First Name: Lutz
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Last Name: Kilian
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RePEc Short-ID: pki110

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Homepage: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~lkilian/
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This author is among the top 5% authors according to these criteria:
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Works

| Working papers | Articles | Access and download statistics | Citations (if any)| NEP Fields |
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Working papers

  1. Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the U.S. Residential Market for Natural Gas," NBER Working Papers 14030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  2. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses About the Transmission of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Published as:

  3. Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2007. "Oil Shocks and External Balances," CEPR Discussion Papers 6303, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

  4. Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  5. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  6. Kilian, Lutz & Manganelli, Simone, 2007. "The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan," CEPR Discussion Papers 6031, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  7. Kilian, Lutz & Park, Cheolbeom, 2007. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  8. Davis, Lucas W & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings: Lessons to be Learned from the US Residential Market for Natural Gas," CEPR Discussion Papers 6142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  9. Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "Retail Energy Prices and Consumer Expenditures," CEPR Discussion Papers 6255, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  10. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz & Kiraz, Fatma Burcu, 2006. "Do actions speak louder than words? Household expectations of inflation based on micro consumption data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

  11. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  12. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian & Marc Nerlove, 2006. "Time Series Analysis," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-019, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania. [Downloadable!]

  13. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  14. Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "The Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation: Evidence from the G7 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 5404, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  15. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "How Useful is Bagging in Forecasting Economic Time Series? A Case Study of US CPI Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5304, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  16. Robert Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," NBER Working Papers 10855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    Published as:

  17. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bagging Time Series Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 4333, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

  18. Sílvia Gonçalves & Lutz Kilian, 2003. "Asymptotic and Bootstrap Inference for AR(Infinite) Processes with Conditional Heteroskedasticity," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-28, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]

  19. Lutz Kilian & Atsushi Inoue, 2003. "On the selection of forecasting models," Working Paper Series 214, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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  20. GONÇALVES, Silvia & KILIAN, Lutz, 2003. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Cahiers de recherche 2003-01, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Kilian, Lutz & Manganelli, Simone, 2003. "The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Quantifying and Forecasting Inflation Risks," CEPR Discussion Papers 3918, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  22. Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2003. "The Central Bank as a risk manager: quantifying and forecasting fnflation risks," Working Paper Series 226, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]

  23. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

  24. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Working Papers 8389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  25. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    Published as:

  26. Ivanov, Ventzislav & Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag-Order Selection for Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 2685, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  27. Diebold, Francis X & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "Measuring Predictability: Theory And Macroeconomic Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 2424, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    Published as:

  28. Caner, Mehmet & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "Size Distortions Of Tests Of The Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity: Evidence And Implications For The PPP Debate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2425, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    Published as:

  29. Barsky, Robert & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "A Monetary Explanation Of The Great Stagflation Of The 1970s," CEPR Discussion Papers 2389, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

  30. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0401, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

  31. Jeremy Berkowitz & Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "On the finite-sample accuracy of nonparametric resampling algorithms for economic time series," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

  32. Lutz Kilian & Tao Zha, 1999. "Quantifying the half-life of deviations from PPP: The role of economic priors," Working Paper 99-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

  33. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Unit Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," NBER Working Papers 6928, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
    Published as:

  34. Kilian, L. & Ohanian, L.E., 1999. "Unit Roots, Trend Breaks and Transitory Dynamics: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Papers 99-02, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.

  35. Kilian, L. & Bergean, I., 1999. "Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators for Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study," Papers 99-04, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
    Published as:

  36. Mehmet Caner & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Size Distortions of Tests of the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity: Evidence and Implications for Applied Work," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 511, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]

  37. Kilian, L. & Chang, P.L., 1998. "How Reliable Are VAR Estimates of Responses to Monetary bPolicy Shocks?," Papers 98-06, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.

  38. Kilian, L., 1998. "Pitfalls in Constructing Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Asymptotically Pivotal Statistics," Papers 98-04, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.

  39. Lutz Kilian & Lee E. Ohanian, 1998. "Is there a trend break in U.S. GNP? A macroeconomic perspective," Staff Report 244, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]

  40. Kilian, L. & Caner, M., 1998. "Analyzing Unit Root Tests in Finite Samples Using Power Profiles," Papers 98-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.

  41. Mehmet Caner & Lutz Kilian, 1998. "A Direct test of the Emerging Consensus about Long-Run PPP," Departmental Working Papers 9823, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.

  42. Kilian, L. & Demiroglu, U., 1997. "Residual-Based Bootstrap Tests for Normality in Autoregressions," Papers 97-14, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.

  43. Kilian, L., 1997. "Exchange rates and Fundamentals: What Do We Learn From Long-Horizon Regressions?," Working Papers 401, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.

  44. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 1996. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
    Published as:

Articles

  1. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 78-121, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  2. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  3. Paul Edelstein & Lutz Kilian, 2007. "The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses about the Transmission of Energy Price Shocks," Contributions to Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1607-1607. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

  4. Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2007. "Quantifying the Risk of Deflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 561-590, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  5. Sílvia Gonçalves & Lutz Kilian, 2007. "Asymptotic and Bootstrap Inference for AR(∞) Processes with Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 609-641. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  6. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "On the selection of forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(2), pages 273-306, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

  7. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "NEW INTRODUCTION TO MULTIPLE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, by Helmut L tkepohl, Springer, 2005," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(05), pages 961-967, August. [Downloadable!]

  8. Ventzislav Ivanov & Lutz Kilian, 2005. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 9(1), pages 1219-1219. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  9. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

  10. Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

  11. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "The Continuity Of The Limit Distribution In The Parameter Of Interest Is Not Essential For The Validity Of The Bootstrap," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 944-961, September. [Downloadable!]

  12. Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

  13. Lutz Kilian & Tao Zha, 2002. "Quantifying the uncertainty about the half-life of deviations from PPP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 107-125. [Downloadable!]

  14. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Bootstrapping Smooth Functions of Slope Parameters and Innovation Variances in VAR (∞) Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(2), pages 309-332, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  15. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 377-391, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

  16. Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators For Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 449-476. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

  17. Caner, M. & Kilian, L., 2001. "Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 639-657, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

  18. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 657-669. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:

  19. Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 161-79, April.

  20. Kilian, Lutz & Demiroglu, Ufuk, 2000. "Residual-Based Tests for Normality in Autoregressions: Asymptotic Theory and Simulation Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 40-50, January.

  21. Diebold, Francis X & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "Unit-Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 265-73, July.
    Other versions:

  22. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-48. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:

  23. Kilian, Lutz & Chang, Pao-Li, 2000. "How accurate are confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 299-307, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  24. Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct. [Downloadable!]

  25. Lutz Kilian, 1999. "FINITE-SAMPLE PROPERTIES OF PERCENTILE AND PERCENTILE-t BOOTSTRAP CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR IMPULSE RESPONSES," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 652-660, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  26. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  27. Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Confidence intervals for impulse responses under departures from normality," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-29. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

  28. Lee E. Ohanian & Alan C. Stockman & Lutz Killian, 1994. "The effects of real and monetary shocks in a business cycle model with some sticky prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1209-1240.
    Published as:

NEP Fields

32 papers by this author were announced in NEP, and specifically in the following field reports (number of papers):
  1. NEP-BEC: Business Economics (2) 2005-08-13 2007-10-13
  2. NEP-CBA: Central Banking (7) 2006-09-23 2006-10-28 2007-01-28 2007-05-26 2007-06-23 2007-09-02 2007-11-17 Author is listed
  3. NEP-CMP: Computational Economics (3) 2003-04-27 2003-06-16 2003-07-13
  4. NEP-ECM: Econometrics (10) 1999-02-22 1999-07-12 2003-03-17 2003-05-12 2003-06-09 2003-06-19 2003-07-16 2004-06-13 2005-12-09 2006-06-24 Author is listed
  5. NEP-ENE: Energy Economics (14) 2001-07-23 2005-02-13 2005-08-13 2006-01-24 2007-01-02 2007-03-03 2007-03-17 2007-04-21 2007-05-26 2007-06-23 2007-09-02 2007-10-13 2007-11-10 2007-11-17 Author is listed
  6. NEP-ETS: Econometric Time Series (12) 1999-02-15 1999-07-12 2003-03-14 2003-04-27 2003-06-04 2003-06-16 2003-07-13 2003-10-20 2004-06-13 2004-10-30 2005-12-09 2006-06-24 Author is listed
  7. NEP-FIN: Finance (1) 2003-07-13
  8. NEP-FMK: Financial Markets (3) 2006-06-24 2007-03-17 2007-11-10
  9. NEP-FOR: Forecasting (1) 2005-12-09
  10. NEP-HIS: Business, Economic & Financial History (4) 2000-02-21 2005-02-13 2005-08-13 2007-03-03
  11. NEP-INT: International Trade (3) 2007-05-26 2007-06-23 2007-09-02
  12. NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics (11) 2004-11-22 2005-02-13 2005-08-13 2006-01-24 2006-09-23 2006-10-28 2007-01-02 2007-01-28 2007-04-21 2007-10-13 2007-11-17 Author is listed
  13. NEP-MIC: Microeconomics (1) 2008-06-07
  14. NEP-MON: Monetary Economics (3) 2000-02-21 2003-07-13 2007-01-28
  15. NEP-PKE: Post Keynesian Economics (1) 2001-07-23
  16. NEP-REG: Regulation (2) 2007-03-03 2008-06-07
  17. NEP-RMG: Risk Management (5) 2003-03-14 2003-04-27 2003-07-13 2003-10-20 2007-03-17 Author is listed
  18. NEP-URE: Urban & Real Estate Economics (1) 2008-06-07
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