Lutz Kilian
Personal Details
First Name: Lutz
Middle Name:
Last Name: Kilian
Suffix:
RePEc Short-ID: pki110
Email:
Homepage:
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~lkilian/
Postal Address:
Phone:
Affiliation
- Economics Department
University of Michigan - Location: Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States)
Homepage: http://www.econ.lsa.umich.edu/
Email:
Phone: (734) 764-2355
Fax: (734) 764-2769
Postal: 611 S. Tappan Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1220
Handle: RePEc:edi:edumius (more details at EDIRC)
Works
Working papers
- Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2014.
"Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses,"
Departmental Working Papers
1401, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2014. "Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses," CEPR Discussion Papers 9892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2014. "The role of oil price shocks in causing U.S. recessions," CFS Working Paper Series 460, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Kilian, Lutz, 2014. "Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences," CEPR Discussion Papers 9823, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K, 2013.
"Quantifying the Speculative Component in the Real Price of Oil: The Role of Global Oil Inventories,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
9297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 71-87.
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2013.
"Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis,"
Working Papers
13-25, Bank of Canada.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2013. "Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 9572, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Are product spreads useful for forecasting? An empirical evaluation of the Verleger hypothesis," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2013.
"Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach,"
Working Papers
13-28, Bank of Canada.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 9569, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Forecasting the real price of oil in a changing world: A forecast combination approach," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/11, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre & Kilian, Lutz, 2013.
"Do high-frequency financial data help forecast oil prices? The MIDAS touch at work,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2013/22, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Baumeister, Christiane & Guérin, Pierre & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Do High-Frequency Financial Data Help Forecast Oil Prices? The MIDAS Touch at Work," CEPR Discussion Papers 9768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christiane Baumeister & Pierre Guérin & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Do High-Frequency Financial Data Help Forecast Oil Prices? The MIDAS Touch at Work," Working Papers 14-11, Bank of Canada.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2013.
"Do oil price increases cause higher food prices?,"
CFS Working Paper Series
2013/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices?," Working Papers 13-52, Bank of Canada.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9689, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bodenstein, Martin & Guerrieri, Luca & Kilian, Lutz, 2012.
"Monetary policy responses to oil price fluctuations,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8928, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martin Bodenstein & Luca Guerrieri & Lutz Kilian, 2012. "Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 60(4), pages 470-504, December.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2012.
"What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
9118, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2013. "What Central Bankers Need to Know about Forecasting Oil Prices," Working Papers 13-15, Bank of Canada.
- Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2012.
"Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8980, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2013. "Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 78-93, January.
- Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2012. "Do oil prices help forecast U.S. real GDP? the role of nonlinearities and asymmetries," International Finance Discussion Papers 1050, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Fattouh, Bassam & Kilian, Lutz & Mahadeva, Lavan, 2012.
"The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bassam Fattouh, Lutz Kilian, and Lavan Mahadeva, 2013. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
- Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2011.
"Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8698, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014. "Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 62(1), pages 119-145, April.
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2012. "Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios," Working Papers 12-1, Bank of Canada.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2011.
"Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8419, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2013. "Inference on impulse response functions in structural VAR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(1), pages 1-13.
- Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models," TERG Discussion Papers 307, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
- Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011.
"Forecasting the Price of Oil,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Forecasting the price of oil," International Finance Discussion Papers 1022, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Working Papers 11-15, Bank of Canada.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Structural Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8515, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011.
"Nonlinearities in the Oil Price-Output Relationship,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8174, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Nonlinearities In The Oil Price–Output Relationship," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 337-363, November.
- Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Nonlinearities in the oil price-output relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 1013, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2011.
"Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
8414, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 326-336, September.
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil," Working Papers 11-16, Bank of Canada.
- Kilian, Lutz & Murphy, Dan, 2010. "The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 7753, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2009.
"Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7324, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2009.
"Estimating the Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions,"
NBER Working Papers
14685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 1187-1214, November.
- Davis, Lucas W & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "Estimating the Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions," CEPR Discussion Papers 7161, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2009.
"Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7284, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Robert Vigfusson, 2009. "Pitfalls in estimating asymmetric effects of energy price shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 970, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks," 2009 Meeting Papers 473, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2009.
"Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding the Dynamics of Oil Market VAR Models,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7471, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2012. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding The Dynamics Of Oil Market Var Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1166-1188, October.
- Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2009.
"Frequentist inference in weakly identified DSGE models,"
Working Papers
09-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A. & Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "Frequentist Inference in Weakly Identified DSGE Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7447, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz & Kim, Yun Jung, 2009. "Do Local Projections Solve the Bias Problem in Impulse Response Inference?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hicks, Bruce & Kilian, Lutz, 2009.
"Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Bruce Hicks, 2013. "Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 385-394, 08.
- Kilian, Lutz & Lewis, Logan, 2009.
"Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Logan T. Lewis, 2011. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 1047-1072, 09.
- Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2008.
"The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the U.S. Residential Market for Natural Gas,"
NBER Working Papers
14030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the U.S. Residential Market for Natural Gas," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(2), pages 212 - 241.
- Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2008.
"Do energy prices respond to U.S. macroeconomic news? a test of the hypothesis of predetermined energy prices,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
957, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2011. "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 660-671, May.
- Kilian, Lutz & Vega, Clara, 2008. "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 7015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2008. "Why Does Gasoline Cost so Much? A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6919, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2007.
"The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses About the Transmission of Energy Price Shocks,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Edelstein Paul & Kilian Lutz, 2007. "The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses about the Transmission of Energy Price Shocks," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-41, November.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2007.
"The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
- Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2007.
"Oil Shocks and External Balances,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6303, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2009. "Oil shocks and external balances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 181-194, April.
- Lutz Kilian & Alessandro Rebucci & Nikola Spatafora, 2007. "Oil Shocks and External Balances," Working Papers 562, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Oil Shocks and External Balances," IMF Working Papers 07/110, International Monetary Fund.
- Davis, Lucas W & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings: Lessons to be Learned from the US Residential Market for Natural Gas," CEPR Discussion Papers 6142, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz, 2007.
"What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010. "What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
- Kilian, Lutz & Manganelli, Simone, 2007.
"The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6031, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2008. "The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1103-1129, 09.
- Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "Retail Energy Prices and Consumer Expenditures," CEPR Discussion Papers 6255, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz & Park, Cheolbeom, 2007.
"The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2006.
"Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz & Kiraz, Fatma Burcu, 2006.
"Do actions speak louder than words? Household expectations of inflation based on micro consumption data,"
Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies
2006,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian & Fatma Burcu Kiraz, 2009. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1331-1363, October.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz & Kiraz, Fatma Burcu, 2006. "Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5790, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian & Marc Nerlove, 2006.
"Time Series Analysis,"
PIER Working Paper Archive
06-019, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Diebold, F.X. & Kilian, L. & Nerlove, Marc, 2006. "Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 28556, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "How Useful is Bagging in Forecasting Economic Time Series? A Case Study of US CPI Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 5304, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2005.
"Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
5131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "The Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation: Evidence from the G7 Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 5404, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Robert Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004.
"Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s,"
NBER Working Papers
10855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
- Barsky, Robert & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," CEPR Discussion Papers 4496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2004.
"Bagging Time Series Models,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4333, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Atsushi Inoue, 2004. "Bagging Time Series Models," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 110, Econometric Society.
- Sílvia Gonçalves & Lutz Kilian, 2003. "Asymptotic and Bootstrap Inference for AR( Infinite ) Processes with Conditional Heteroskedasticity," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-28, CIRANO.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003.
"On the selection of forecasting models,"
Working Paper Series
0214, European Central Bank.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "On the selection of forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 273-306, February.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "On the Selection of Forecasting Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz & Manganelli, Simone, 2003.
"The central bank as a risk manager: quantifying and forecasting inflation risks,"
Working Paper Series
0226, European Central Bank.
- Kilian, Lutz & Manganelli, Simone, 2003. "The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Quantifying and Forecasting Inflation Risks," CEPR Discussion Papers 3918, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- GONÇALVES, Silvia & KILIAN, Lutz, 2003.
"Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form,"
Cahiers de recherche
2003-01, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
- Gonçalves, Sílvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Working Paper Series 0196, European Central Bank.
- Gonçalves, Sílvia & KILIAN, Lutz, 2003. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Cahiers de recherche 01-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Kilian, Lutz & Gonçalves, Sílvia, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Sílvia Gonçalves & Lutz Kilian, 2003. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-17, CIRANO.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002.
"In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2005. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 371-402.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: which one should we use?," Working Paper Series 0195, European Central Bank.
- Ivanov, Ventzislav & Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag-Order Selection for Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 2685, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001.
"Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 0088, European Central Bank.
- Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-031/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 464, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2001.
"Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative,"
NBER Working Papers
8389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barsky, Robert & Kilian, Lutz, 2000.
"A Monetary Explanation Of The Great Stagflation Of The 1970s,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2389, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Barsky, R.B. & Kilian, L., 2000. "A Monetary Explanation of the Great Stagflation of the 1970s," Working Papers 452, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Robert Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "A Monetary Explanation of the Great Stagflation of the 1970s," NBER Working Papers 7547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Caner, Mehmet & Kilian, Lutz, 2000.
"Size Distortions Of Tests Of The Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity: Evidence And Implications For The PPP Debate,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2425, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Caner, M. & Kilian, L., 2001. "Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 639-657, October.
- Kilian, L. & Caner, M., 1999. "Size Distortions of Tests of the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity: Evidence and Implications for the PPP Debate," Papers 99-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Diebold, Francis X & Kilian, Lutz, 2000.
"Measuring Predictability: Theory And Macroeconomic Applications,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2424, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 657-669.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1997. "Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications," Working Papers 97-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1997. "Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications," NBER Technical Working Papers 0213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications," Working Papers 98-16, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2000.
"Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0401, Econometric Society.
- Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 377-391, January.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1999.
"Unit Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models,"
NBER Working Papers
6928, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Diebold, Francis X & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "Unit-Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 265-73, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Unit Root Tests are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-063, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Kilian, L. & Ohanian, L.E., 1999.
"Unit Roots, Trend Breaks and Transitory Dynamics: A Macroeconomic Perspective,"
Papers
99-02, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Kilian, Lutz & Ohanian, Lee E., 2002. "Unit Roots, Trend Breaks, And Transitory Dynamics: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(05), pages 614-632, November.
- Jeremy Berkowitz & Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 1999.
"On the finite-sample accuracy of nonparametric resampling algorithms for economic time series,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1999-04, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Berkowitz, J. & Birgean, I. & Kilian, L., 1999. "On the Finite-Sample Accuracy of Nonparametric Resampling Algorithms for Economic Time Series," Papers 99-01, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Mehmet Caner & Lutz Kilian, 1999.
"Size Distortions of Tests of the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity: Evidence and Implications for Applied Work,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 1999
511, Society for Computational Economics.
- Caner, Mehmet & Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: Evidence and implications for applied work," ZEI Working Papers B 12-1999, ZEI - Center for European Integration Studies, University of Bonn.
- Lutz Kilian & Tao Zha, 1999.
"Quantifying the half-life of deviations from PPP: The role of economic priors,"
Working Paper
99-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Kilian, L. & Zha, T., 1999. "Quantifying the Half-Life of Deviations from PPP: The Role of Economic Priors," Papers 99-08, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Kilian, Lutz & Zha, Tao, 1999. "Quantifying the Half-Life of Deviations from PPP: The Role of Economic Priors," CEPR Discussion Papers 2334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, L. & Zha, T., 1999. "Quantifying the Half-Life of Deviations from PPP: The Role of Economic Priors," Working Papers 450, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Kilian, L. & Bergean, I., 1999.
"Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators for Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study,"
Papers
99-04, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators For Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 449-476.
- Kilian, L., 1998. "Pitfalls in Constructing Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Asymptotically Pivotal Statistics," Papers 98-04, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Kilian, L. & Chang, P.L., 1998. "How Reliable Are VAR Estimates of Responses to Monetary bPolicy Shocks?," Papers 98-06, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Kilian, L. & Caner, M., 1998. "Analyzing Unit Root Tests in Finite Samples Using Power Profiles," Papers 98-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Mehmet Caner & Lutz Kilian, 1998. "A Direct test of the Emerging Consensus about Long-Run PPP," Departmental Working Papers 9823, Bilkent University, Department of Economics.
- Lutz Kilian & Lee E. Ohanian, 1998. "Is there a trend break in U.S. GNP? A macroeconomic perspective," Staff Report 244, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Kilian, L. & Demiroglu, U., 1997. "Residual-Based Bootstrap Tests for Normality in Autoregressions," Papers 97-14, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Kilian, L., 1997. "Exchange rates and Fundamentals: What Do We Learn From Long-Horizon Regressions?," Working Papers 401, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 1996.
"Recent developments in bootstrapping time series,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
96-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-48.
Articles
- Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014.
"Quantifying the speculative component in the real price of oil: The role of global oil inventories,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 71-87.
- Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K, 2013. "Quantifying the Speculative Component in the Real Price of Oil: The Role of Global Oil Inventories," CEPR Discussion Papers 9297, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2014. "The Role Of Inventories And Speculative Trading In The Global Market For Crude Oil," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 454-478, 04.
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2014.
"Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios,"
IMF Economic Review,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 62(1), pages 119-145, April.
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2012. "Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios," Working Papers 12-1, Bank of Canada.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios," CEPR Discussion Papers 8698, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pablo Guerron‐Quintana & Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Frequentist inference in weakly identified dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models: Acronyms must be spelled out in titles for indexing purposes," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 4(2), pages 197-229, 07.
- Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2013.
"Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 78-93, January.
- Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2012. "Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries," CEPR Discussion Papers 8980, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2012. "Do oil prices help forecast U.S. real GDP? the role of nonlinearities and asymmetries," International Finance Discussion Papers 1050, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2013.
"Inference on impulse response functions in structural VAR models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 177(1), pages 1-13.
- Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2013. "Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models," TERG Discussion Papers 307, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 8419, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Bassam Fattouh, Lutz Kilian, and Lavan Mahadeva, 2013.
"The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
- Fattouh, Bassam & Kilian, Lutz & Mahadeva, Lavan, 2012. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Bruce Hicks, 2013.
"Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003–2008?,"
Journal of Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(5), pages 385-394, 08.
- Hicks, Bruce & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2012.
"Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding The Dynamics Of Oil Market Var Models,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1166-1188, October.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding the Dynamics of Oil Market VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 7471, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Martin Bodenstein & Luca Guerrieri & Lutz Kilian, 2012.
"Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations,"
IMF Economic Review,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 60(4), pages 470-504, December.
- Bodenstein, Martin & Guerrieri, Luca & Kilian, Lutz, 2012. "Monetary policy responses to oil price fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 8928, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Thomas F. Helbling & Vincent Kaminski & Lutz Kilian & Robert Levin, 2012. "Interviews with the experts on "Financial Speculation in the Oil Market and the Determinants of the Oil Price" (PART II)," Review of Environment, Energy and Economics - Re3, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, January.
- Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2011.
"Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 1187-1214, November.
- Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Estimating the Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions," NBER Working Papers 14685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Davis, Lucas W & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "Estimating the Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions," CEPR Discussion Papers 7161, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Logan T. Lewis, 2011.
"Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?,"
Economic Journal,
Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 1047-1072, 09.
- Kilian, Lutz & Lewis, Logan, 2009. "Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?," CEPR Discussion Papers 7594, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2011.
"The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the U.S. Residential Market for Natural Gas,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(2), pages 212 - 241.
- Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the U.S. Residential Market for Natural Gas," NBER Working Papers 14030, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2011.
"Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 326-336, September.
- Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil," Working Papers 11-16, Bank of Canada.
- Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2011. "Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8414, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2011.
"Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 660-671, May.
- Kilian, Lutz & Vega, Clara, 2008. "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 7015, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2008. "Do energy prices respond to U.S. macroeconomic news? a test of the hypothesis of predetermined energy prices," International Finance Discussion Papers 957, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011.
"Nonlinearities In The Oil Price–Output Relationship,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 337-363, November.
- Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Nonlinearities in the oil price-output relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 1013, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Nonlinearities in the Oil Price-Output Relationship," CEPR Discussion Papers 8174, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Yun Jung Kim, 2011. "How Reliable Are Local Projection Estimators of Impulse Responses?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(4), pages 1460-1466, November.
- Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Are the responses of the U.S. economy asymmetric in energy price increases and decreases?," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 419-453, November.
- Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Explaining Fluctuations in Gasoline Prices: A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 87-112.
- Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian, 2010.
"What do we learn from the price of crude oil futures?,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 539-573.
- Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "What Do We Learn from the Price of Crude Oil Futures?," CEPR Discussion Papers 6548, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "How sensitive are consumer expenditures to retail energy prices?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 766-779, September.
- Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian & Fatma Burcu Kiraz, 2009.
"Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(7), pages 1331-1363, October.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz & Kiraz, Fatma Burcu, 2006. "Do actions speak louder than words? Household expectations of inflation based on micro consumption data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz & Kiraz, Fatma Burcu, 2006. "Do Actions Speak Louder than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 5790, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009.
"The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
- Kilian, Lutz & Park, Cheolbeom, 2007. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2009.
"Oil shocks and external balances,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 181-194, April.
- Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2007. "Oil Shocks and External Balances," CEPR Discussion Papers 6303, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Alessandro Rebucci & Nikola Spatafora, 2007. "Oil Shocks and External Balances," Working Papers 562, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Oil Shocks and External Balances," IMF Working Papers 07/110, International Monetary Fund.
- Lutz Kilian, 2009.
"Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian, 2008. "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 78-121, 03.
- Lutz Kilian, 2008.
"Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2008. "How Useful Is Bagging in Forecasting Economic Time Series? A Case Study of U.S. Consumer Price Inflation," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 511-522, June.
- Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2008.
"The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1103-1129, 09.
- Kilian, Lutz & Manganelli, Simone, 2007. "The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences under Greenspan," CEPR Discussion Papers 6031, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian, 2008.
"The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6559, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Edelstein Paul & Kilian Lutz, 2007.
"The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses about the Transmission of Energy Price Shocks,"
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics,
De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-41, November.
- Edelstein, Paul & Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses About the Transmission of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6507, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lutz Kilian & Simone Manganelli, 2007. "Quantifying the Risk of Deflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 561-590, 03.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2007. "Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 156-159, April.
- Silvia Goncalves & Lutz Kilian, 2007. "Asymptotic and Bootstrap Inference for AR(∞) Processes with Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 609-641.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2006.
"On the selection of forecasting models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 273-306, February.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "On the selection of forecasting models," Working Paper Series 0214, European Central Bank.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "On the Selection of Forecasting Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3809, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "NEW INTRODUCTION TO MULTIPLE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, by Helmut L tkepohl, Springer, 2005," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(05), pages 961-967, October.
- Lutz Kilian, 2006. "Understanding the effects of exogenous oil supply shocks," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 7(2), pages 21-27, 07.
- Ivanov Ventzislav & Kilian Lutz, 2005. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection For VAR Impulse Response Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-36, March.
- Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2005.
"In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?,"
Econometric Reviews,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 371-402.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: which one should we use?," Working Paper Series 0195, European Central Bank.
- Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004.
"Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
- Sílvia Gonçalves & Lutz Kilian, 2003. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," CIRANO Working Papers 2003s-17, CIRANO.
- Kilian, Lutz & Gonçalves, Sílvia, 2002. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- GONÇALVES, Silvia & KILIAN, Lutz, 2003. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Cahiers de recherche 2003-01, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Gonçalves, Sílvia & KILIAN, Lutz, 2003. "Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form," Cahiers de recherche 01-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Gonçalves, Sílvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Working Paper Series 0196, European Central Bank.
- Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004.
"Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 115-134, Fall.
- Robert Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," NBER Working Papers 10855, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barsky, Robert & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s," CEPR Discussion Papers 4496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2003. "The Continuity Of The Limit Distribution In The Parameter Of Interest Is Not Essential For The Validity Of The Bootstrap," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(06), pages 944-961, December.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2003.
"Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 85-107, May.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P., 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?," Working Paper Series 0088, European Central Bank.
- Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why is it so difficult to beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-031/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Lutz Kilian & Mark P. Taylor, 2001. "Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 464, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P, 2001. "Why is it so Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3024, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ionel Birgean & Lutz Kilian, 2002.
"Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators For Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study,"
Econometric Reviews,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 449-476.
- Kilian, L. & Bergean, I., 1999. "Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators for Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study," Papers 99-04, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2002.
"Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots,"
Econometrica,
Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 377-391, January.
- Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0401, Econometric Society.
- Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Bootstrapping Smooth Functions of Slope Parameters and Innovation Variances in VAR (∞) Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 43(2), pages 309-332, May.
- Kilian, Lutz & Ohanian, Lee E., 2002.
"Unit Roots, Trend Breaks, And Transitory Dynamics: A Macroeconomic Perspective,"
Macroeconomic Dynamics,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(05), pages 614-632, November.
- Kilian, L. & Ohanian, L.E., 1999. "Unit Roots, Trend Breaks and Transitory Dynamics: A Macroeconomic Perspective," Papers 99-02, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Lutz Kilian & Tao Zha, 2002. "Quantifying the uncertainty about the half-life of deviations from PPP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(2), pages 107-125.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 2001.
"Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(6), pages 657-669.
- Diebold, Francis X & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "Measuring Predictability: Theory And Macroeconomic Applications," CEPR Discussion Papers 2424, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1997. "Measuring predictability: theory and macroeconomic applications," Working Papers 97-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications," Working Papers 98-16, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1997. "Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications," NBER Technical Working Papers 0213, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 161-79, April.
- Caner, M. & Kilian, L., 2001.
"Size distortions of tests of the null hypothesis of stationarity: evidence and implications for the PPP debate,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 639-657, October.
- Caner, Mehmet & Kilian, Lutz, 2000. "Size Distortions Of Tests Of The Null Hypothesis Of Stationarity: Evidence And Implications For The PPP Debate," CEPR Discussion Papers 2425, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kilian, L. & Caner, M., 1999. "Size Distortions of Tests of the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity: Evidence and Implications for the PPP Debate," Papers 99-05, Michigan - Center for Research on Economic & Social Theory.
- Diebold, Francis X & Kilian, Lutz, 2000.
"Unit-Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 265-73, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Unit Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," NBER Working Papers 6928, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Unit Root Tests are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-063, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Kilian, Lutz & Demiroglu, Ufuk, 2000. "Residual-Based Tests for Normality in Autoregressions: Asymptotic Theory and Simulation Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 40-50, January.
- Kilian, Lutz & Chang, Pao-Li, 2000. "How accurate are confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 299-307, December.
- Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 2000.
"Recent developments in bootstrapping time series,"
Econometric Reviews,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-48.
- Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 1996. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Lutz Kilian, 1999. "Finite-Sample Properties of Percentile and Percentile-t Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Impulse Responses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 652-660, November.
- Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct.
- Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Small-Sample Confidence Intervals For Impulse Response Functions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 218-230, May.
- Lutz Kilian, 1998. "Confidence intervals for impulse responses under departures from normality," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-29.
- Lee E. Ohanian & Alan C. Stockman & Lutz Killian, 1994.
"The effects of real and monetary shocks in a business cycle model with some sticky prices,"
Proceedings,
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 1209-1240.
- Ohanian, Lee E & Stockman, Alan C & Kilian, Lutz, 1995. "The Effects of Real and Monetary Shocks in a Business Cycle Model with Some Sticky Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1209-34, November.
Chapters
- Lutz Kilian, 2010.
"Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation,"
RBA Annual Conference Volume,
in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks
Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 7324, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002.
"Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative,"
NBER Chapters,
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Working Papers 8389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
NEP Fields
78 papers by this author were announced in NEP, and specifically in the following field reports (number of papers):- NEP-AGR: Agricultural Economics (3) 2013-11-22 2014-01-10 2014-06-02
- NEP-BEC: Business Economics (5) 2005-08-13 2007-10-13 2011-08-02 2012-05-29 2012-07-23. Author is listed
- NEP-CBA: Central Banking (24) 2006-09-23 2006-10-28 2007-01-28 2007-05-26 2007-06-23 2007-09-02 2007-11-17 2008-12-07 2009-04-25 2009-05-02 2009-07-28 2009-12-19 2011-06-11 2011-06-11 2011-06-11 2011-08-02 2011-08-15 2011-10-15 2011-10-15 2011-12-19 2012-02-20 2012-04-10 2012-09-09 2013-06-16. Author is listed
- NEP-CMP: Computational Economics (3) 2003-04-27 2003-06-16 2003-07-13
- NEP-DGE: Dynamic General Equilibrium (2) 2009-08-22 2009-11-27
- NEP-ECM: Econometrics (17) 1999-02-22 1999-07-12 2003-03-17 2003-05-12 2003-06-09 2003-06-19 2003-07-16 2004-06-13 2005-12-09 2006-06-24 2008-12-07 2009-04-25 2009-08-22 2009-11-27 2011-06-11 2011-08-15 2014-03-08. Author is listed
- NEP-ENE: Energy Economics (51) 2001-07-23 2005-02-13 2005-08-13 2006-01-24 2007-01-02 2007-03-03 2007-03-17 2007-04-21 2007-05-26 2007-06-23 2007-09-02 2007-10-13 2007-11-10 2007-11-17 2008-12-07 2009-01-31 2009-02-28 2009-02-28 2009-02-28 2009-04-25 2009-05-02 2009-07-28 2009-11-27 2009-12-19 2011-03-05 2011-06-11 2011-06-11 2011-08-02 2011-10-15 2011-10-15 2011-12-19 2012-02-20 2012-04-03 2012-04-10 2012-05-29 2012-07-23 2012-09-09 2013-04-13 2013-06-16 2013-08-31 2013-09-24 2013-11-22 2013-11-22 2013-11-22 2013-11-29 2014-01-10 2014-05-09 2014-06-02 2014-06-02 2014-06-02 2014-06-28. Author is listed
- NEP-ENV: Environmental Economics (2) 2009-01-31 2009-02-28
- NEP-ETS: Econometric Time Series (20) 1999-02-15 1999-07-12 2003-03-14 2003-04-27 2003-06-04 2003-06-16 2003-07-13 2003-10-20 2004-06-13 2004-10-30 2005-12-09 2006-06-24 2009-04-25 2009-05-02 2009-08-22 2009-11-27 2011-06-11 2011-08-15 2013-11-22 2014-06-02. Author is listed
- NEP-FDG: Financial Development & Growth (1) 2009-04-25
- NEP-FIN: Finance (1) 2003-07-13
- NEP-FMK: Financial Markets (3) 2006-06-24 2007-03-17 2007-11-10
- NEP-FOR: Forecasting (20) 2005-12-09 2011-06-11 2011-06-11 2011-08-02 2011-10-15 2011-10-15 2011-12-19 2012-02-20 2012-05-29 2012-07-23 2012-09-09 2013-06-16 2013-08-23 2013-08-31 2013-09-24 2013-11-22 2013-11-22 2013-11-29 2014-05-09 2014-06-02. Author is listed
- NEP-HIS: Business, Economic & Financial History (5) 2000-02-21 2005-02-13 2005-08-13 2007-03-03 2012-04-03. Author is listed
- NEP-INT: International Trade (3) 2007-05-26 2007-06-23 2007-09-02
- NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics (26) .html">"> 2004-11-22 2005-02-13 2005-08-13 2006-01-24 2006-09-23 2006-10-28 2007-01-02 2007-01-28 2007-04-21 2007-10-13 2007-11-17 2008-12-07 2009-02-28 2009-04-25 2009-05-02 2009-08-22 2009-12-19 2011-03-05 2012-04-10 2013-11-22 2013-11-22 2013-11-22 2014-01-10 2014-06-02 2014-06-28. Author is listed
- NEP-MIC: Microeconomics (1) 2008-06-07
- NEP-MON: Monetary Economics (5) 2000-02-21 2003-07-13 2007-01-28 2009-12-19 2012-04-10. Author is listed
- NEP-MST: Market Microstructure (3) 2013-11-29 2014-05-09 2014-06-02
- NEP-ORE: Operations Research (2) 2013-08-31 2013-09-24
- NEP-PKE: Post Keynesian Economics (1) 2001-07-23
- NEP-REG: Regulation (2) 2007-03-03 2008-06-07
- NEP-RMG: Risk Management (5) 2003-03-14 2003-04-27 2003-07-13 2003-10-20 2007-03-17. Author is listed
- NEP-URE: Urban & Real Estate Economics (1) 2008-06-07
Statistics
This author is among the top 5% authors according to these criteria:- Average Rank Score
- Number of Works
- Number of Distinct Works
- Number of Distinct Works, Weighted by Simple Impact Factor
- Number of Distinct Works, Weighted by Recursive Impact Factor
- Number of Distinct Works, Weighted by Number of Authors
- Number of Distinct Works, Weighted by Number of Authors and Simple Impact Factors
- Number of Distinct Works, Weighted by Number of Authors and Recursive Impact Factors
- Number of Citations
- Number of Citations, Discounted by Citation Age
- Number of Citations, Weighted by Simple Impact Factor
- Number of Citations, Weighted by Simple Impact Factor, Discounted by Citation Age
- Number of Citations, Weighted by Recursive Impact Factor
- Number of Citations, Weighted by Recursive Impact Factor, Discounted by Citation Age
- Number of Citations, Weighted by Number of Authors
- Number of Citations, Weighted by Number of Authors, Discounted by Citation Age
- Number of Citations, Weighted by Number of Authors and Simple Impact Factors
- Number of Citations, Weighted by Number of Authors and Simple Impact Factors, Discounted by Citation Age
- Number of Citations, Weighted by Number of Authors and Recursive Impact Factors
- Number of Citations, Weighted by Number of Authors and Recursive Impact Factors, Discounted by Citation Age
- h-index
- Number of Registered Citing Authors
- Number of Registered Citing Authors, Weighted by Rank (Max. 1 per Author)
- Number of Journal Pages
- Number of Journal Pages, Weighted by Simple Impact Factor
- Number of Journal Pages, Weighted by Recursive Impact Factor
- Number of Journal Pages, Weighted by Number of Authors
- Number of Journal Pages, Weighted by Number of Authors and Simple Impact Factors
- Number of Journal Pages, Weighted by Number of Authors and Recursive Impact Factors
- Number of Abstract Views in RePEc Services over the past 12 months
- Number of Downloads through RePEc Services over the past 12 months
- Number of Abstract Views in RePEc Services over the past 12 months, Weighted by Number of Authors
- Number of Downloads through RePEc Services over the past 12 months, Weighted by Number of Authors
- Closeness measure in co-authorship network
- Betweenness measure in co-authorship network
- Breadth of citations across fields
- Wu-Index
Most cited item
- Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
Most downloaded item (past 12 months)
- Ivanov, Ventzislav & Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "A Practitioner's Guide to Lag-Order Selection for Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 2685, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
Access and download statistics for all items
Co-authorship network on CollEc
Corrections
For general information on how to correct material on RePEc, see these instructions.To update listings or check citations waiting for approval, Lutz Kilian should log into the RePEc Author Service
To make corrections to the bibliographic information of a particular item, find the technical contact on the abstract page of that item. There, details are also given on how to add or correct references and citations.
To link different versions of the same work, where versions have a different title, use this form. Note that if the versions have a very similar title and are in the author's profile, the links will usually be created automatically.
Please note that most corrections can take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.