On the Influence of Oil Prices on Economic Activity and Other Macroeconomic and Financial Variables
AbstractThe aim of this paper is to investigate the links between oil prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables for a large set of countries, including both oilimporting and exporting countries. Both short-run and long-run interactions are analyzed through the implementation of causality tests, evaluation of cross-correlations between the cyclical components of the series in order to identify lead/lag relationships and cointegration analysis. Our results highlight the existence of various relationships between oil prices and macroeconomic variables and, especially, an important link between oil and share prices on the short run. Turning to the long run, numerous long-term relationships are detected, the causality generally running from oil prices to the other variables. An important conclusion is relating to the key role played by the oil market on stock markets.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2008-05.
Date of creation: Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Oil prices; Economic activity; Causality; Cyclical correlations; Cointegration; VAR processes;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
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- Virginie Coudert & Valérie Mignon & Alexis Penot, 2008. "Oil Price and the Dollar," Post-Print halshs-00353404, HAL.
- Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Mignon, Valerie & Penot, Alexis, 2007.
"China and the relationship between the oil price and the dollar,"
Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 5795-5805, November.
- Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Valérie Mignon & Alexis Penot, 2005. "China and the Relationship Between the Oil Price and the Dollar," Working Papers 2005-16, CEPII research center.
- Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. " Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-91, June.
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