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On the Influence of Oil Prices on Economic Activity and Other Macroeconomic and Financial Variables

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Author Info
François Lescaroux
Valerie Mignon

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to investigate the links between oil prices and various macroeconomic and financial variables for a large set of countries, including both oilimporting and exporting countries. Both short-run and long-run interactions are analyzed through the implementation of causality tests, evaluation of cross-correlations between the cyclical components of the series in order to identify lead/lag relationships and cointegration analysis. Our results highlight the existence of various relationships between oil prices and macroeconomic variables and, especially, an important link between oil and share prices on the short run. Turning to the long run, numerous long-term relationships are detected, the causality generally running from oil prices to the other variables. An important conclusion is relating to the key role played by the oil market on stock markets.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 2008-05.

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Date of creation: Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-05

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Related research
Keywords: Oil prices; economic activity; causality; cyclical correlations; cointegration; VAR processes;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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  1. Elisaveta Archanskaïa & Jerome Creel & Paul Hubert, 2009. "Why the nature of oil shocks matters," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2009-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE). [Downloadable!]
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