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Conditional Correlations and Volatility Spillovers Between Crude Oil and Stock Index Returns

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  • Roengchai Tansuchat

    (Faculty of Economics, Maejo University)

  • Chia-Lin Chang

    (Department of Applied Economics, National Chung Hsing University)

  • Michael McAleer

    (Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute)

Abstract

This paper investigates the conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between crude oil returns and stock index returns. Daily returns from 2 January 1998 to 4 November 2009 of the crude oil spot, forward and futures prices from the WTI and Brent markets, and the FTSE100, NYSE, Dow Jones and S&P500 index returns, are analysed using the CCC model of Bollerslev (1990), VARMA-GARCH model of Ling and McAleer (2003), VARMAAGARCH model of McAleer, Hoti and Chan (2008), and DCC model of Engle (2002). Based on the CCC model, the estimates of conditional correlations for returns across markets are very low, and some are not statistically significant, which means the conditional shocks are correlated only in the same market and not across markets. However, the DCC estimates of the conditional correlations are always significant. This result makes it clear that the assumption of constant conditional correlations is not supported empirically. Surprisingly, the empirical results from the VARMA-GARCH and VARMA-AGARCH models provide little evidence of volatility spillovers between the crude oil and financial markets. The evidence of asymmetric effects of negative and positive shocks of equal magnitude on the conditional variances suggests that VARMA-AGARCH is superior to VARMA-GARCH and CCC.

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Paper provided by Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo in its series CARF F-Series with number CARF-F-202.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfi:fseres:cf202

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Anissa Chaibi & Mathieu Gomes, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers Between Oil Prices and Stock Returns: A Focus on Frontier Markets," Working Papers 2013-034, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  2. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 175-191.
  3. David C Broadstock & Hong Cao & Dayong Zhang, 2012. "Oil Shocks and their Impact on Energy Related Stocks in China," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 137, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  4. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Michael McAleer, 2012. "Risk Management and Financial Derivatives: An Overview," Working Papers in Economics 12/10, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  5. repec:ipg:wpaper:34 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Chia-Lin Chang & Hui-Kuang Hsu & Michael McAleer, 2013. "The Impact of China on Stock Returns and Volatility in the Taiwan Tourism Industry," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 2013-30, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, revised Aug 2013.
  7. Gustavo A. Marrero & Luis A. Puch & Francisco J. Ramos-Real, 2013. "Mean-variance portfolio methods for energy policy risk management," Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico 2013-41, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales.
  8. Souček, Michael & Todorova, Neda, 2013. "Realized volatility transmission between crude oil and equity futures markets: A multivariate HAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 586-597.
  9. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
  10. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping & Chang, Chi-Hung, 2013. "Dynamic relationships between industry returns and stock market returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 119-144.
  11. Chia-Lin Chang & Hui-Kuang Hsu & Michael McAleer, 2013. "The Impact of China on Stock Returns and Volatility in the Taiwan Tourism Industry," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-118/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  12. Yang, Hsin-Feng & Liu, Chih-Liang & Chou, Ray Yeutien, 2014. "Interest rate risk propagation: Evidence from the credit crunch," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 242-264.
  13. Souček, Michael, 2013. "Crude oil, equity and gold futures open interest co-movements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 306-315.

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