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On the short-term influence of oil price changes on stock markets in GCC countries: linear and nonlinear analyses

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Author Info

  • Mohamed El Hedi Arouri

    ()
    (EconomiX - CNRS : UMR7166 - Université Paris X - Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense)

  • Julien Fouquau

    ()
    (Pôle Finance Responsable - Rouen Business School - Rouen Business School)

Abstract

This paper examines the short-run relationships between oil prices and GCC stock markets. Since GCC countries are major world energy market players, their stock markets may be susceptible to oil price shocks. To account for the fact that stock markets may respond nonlinearly to oil price shocks, we have examined both linear and nonlinear relationships. Our findings show that there are significant links between the two variables in Qatar, Oman, and UAE. Thus, stock markets in these countries react positively to oil price increases. For Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia we found that oil price changes do not affect stock market returns.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Post-Print with number hal-00822012.

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Date of creation: May 2009
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Publication status: Published, Economics Bulletin, 2009, Vol. 29, n° 2, pp 795-804
Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00822012

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References

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  1. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. " Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-91, June.
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  9. James D. Hamilton, 2000. "What is an Oil Shock?," NBER Working Papers 7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  11. Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 511-532, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Les effets des fluctuations du prix du pétrole sur les marchés boursiers dans les pays du Golfe," Working Papers hal-00507825, HAL.
  2. Thai-Ha Le & Youngho Chang, 2011. "The impact of oil price fluctuations on stock markets in developed and emerging economies," Working Papers 23, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
  3. Rizvi, Aun & Masih, Mansur, 2014. "Oil price shocks and GCC capital markets: who drives whom?," MPRA Paper 56993, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Thanh Huong Dinh, 2010. "Time-varying Predictability in Crude Oil Markets: The Case of GCC Countries," Working Papers hal-00507822, HAL.
  5. Tansuchat, R. & Chang, C-L. & McAleer, M.J., 2010. "Conditional Correlations and Volatility Spillovers Between Crude Oil and Stock Index Returns," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2010-12, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  6. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Return and volatility transmission between world oil prices and stock markets of the GCC countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1815-1825, July.
  7. Arouri Mohamed El Hedi & Jawadi Fredj, 2010. "Short and long-term links between oil prices and stock markets in Europe," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(1), pages 817-828.
  8. Naifar, Nader & Al Dohaiman, Mohammed Saleh, 2013. "Nonlinear analysis among crude oil prices, stock markets' return and macroeconomic variables," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 416-431.
  9. Berk, Istemi & Aydogan, Berna, 2012. "Crude Oil Price Shocks and Stock Returns: Evidence from Turkish Stock Market under Global Liquidity Conditions," EWI Working Papers 2012-15, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln.
  10. Awartani, Basel & Maghyereh, Aktham Issa, 2013. "Dynamic spillovers between oil and stock markets in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 28-42.
  11. Arouri Mohamed El Hédi & Jawadi Fredj, 2010. "On the Impacts of Crisis on the Risk Premium: Evidence from the US Stock Market using a Conditional CAPM," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1032-1043.
  12. Heni Boubaker & Nadia Sghaier, 2013. "Instability and time-varying dependence structure between oil prices and stock markets in GCC countries," Working Papers 2013-023, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  13. Arturo Lorenzo Valdés & Rocío Durán Vázquez & Leticia Armenta Fraire, 2012. "Conditional Correlation Between Oil and Stock Market Returns: The Case of Mexico," Remef - The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance, Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas. Remef, October.
  14. Awartani, Basel & Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Shiab, Mohammad Al, 2013. "Directional spillovers from the U.S. and the Saudi market to equities in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 224-242.

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