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Conditional Correlations and Volatility Spillovers Between Crude Oil and Stock Index Returns

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Abstract

This paper investigates the conditional correlations and volatility spillovers between the crude oil and financial markets, based on crude oil returns and stock index returns. Daily returns from 2 January 1998 to 4 November 2009 of the crude oil spot, forward and futures prices from the WTI and Brent markets, and the FTSE100, NYSE, Dow Jones and S&P500 stock index returns, are analysed using the CCC model of Bollerslev (1990), VARMA-GARCH model of Ling and McAleer (2003), VARMA-AGARCH model of McAleer, Hoti and Chan (2008), and DCC model of Engle (2002). Based on the CCC model, the estimates of conditional correlations for returns across markets are very low, and some are not statistically significant, which means the conditional shocks are correlated only in the same market and not across markets. However, the DCC estimates of the conditional correlations are always significant. This result makes it clear that the assumption of constant conditional correlations is not supported empirically. Surprisingly, the empirical results from the VARMA-GARCH and VARMA-AGARCH models provide little evidence of volatility spillovers between the crude oil and financial markets. The evidence of asymmetric effects of negative and positive shocks of equal magnitude on the conditional variances suggests that VARMA-AGARCH is superior to VARMA-GARCH and CCC. The estimation and analysis of the volatility and conditional correlations between crude oil returns and stock index returns can provide useful information for investors, oil traders and government agencies that are concerned with the crude oil and stock markets, especially regarding optimal hedging across the two markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales in its series Documentos del Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico with number 2011-34.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ucm:doicae:1134

Note: The authors are most grateful to a referee for helpful comments and suggestions. For financial support, the first author is most grateful to the National Science Council, Taiwan, the second author thanks the Australian Research Council, National Science Council, Taiwan, and the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science, and the third author acknowledges the Faculty of Economics, Maejo University, Thailand.
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Keywords: Multivariate GARCH; volatility spillovers; conditional correlations; crude oil prices; spot; forward and futures prices; stock indexes.;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chia-Lin Chang & Hui-Kuang Hsu & Michael McAleer, 2013. "The Impact of China on Stock Returns and Volatility in the Taiwan Tourism Industry," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-118/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  2. Souček, Michael & Todorova, Neda, 2013. "Realized volatility transmission between crude oil and equity futures markets: A multivariate HAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 586-597.
  3. Anissa Chaibi & Mathieu Gomes, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers Between Oil Prices and Stock Returns: A Focus on Frontier Markets," Working Papers 2013-034, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  4. Michael McAleer & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2012. "Risk Management and Financial Derivatives:An Overview," KIER Working Papers 816, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  5. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
  6. Chia-Lin Chang & Hui-Kuang Hsu & Michael McAleer, 2013. "The Impact of China on Stock Returns and Volatility in the Taiwan Tourism Industry," Working Papers in Economics 13/27, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
  7. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Oil and stock returns: Evidence from European industrial sector indices in a time-varying environment," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 175-191.
  8. David C Broadstock & Hong Cao & Dayong Zhang, 2012. "Oil Shocks and their Impact on Energy Related Stocks in China," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 137, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  9. Souček, Michael, 2013. "Crude oil, equity and gold futures open interest co-movements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 306-315.
  10. repec:ipg:wpaper:34 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping & Chang, Chi-Hung, 2013. "Dynamic relationships between industry returns and stock market returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 119-144.

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