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On the relationship between world oil prices and GCC stock markets

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  • Mohamed El Hedi Arouri

    ()
    (EconomiX - CNRS : UMR7166 - Université Paris X - Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense)

  • Jamel Jouini

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

  • Duc Khuong Nguyen

    (IPAG Lab - IPAG Lab - Ipag)

Abstract

We provide comprehensive evidence on the relationship between oil prices and stock mar-kets for six GCC countries. Unlike previous contributions, a wide range of modern econo-metric techniques are applied in order to: i) capture both short- and long-term interactions between considered markets; ii) deal with the potential asymmetry in such interactions and iii) control for the effects of relevant global financial variables. Empirical results show strong causal linkages in the short-run with the impact direction running usually from oil to stocks, but no long-run links. Stock returns seem also to be more sensitive to negative than to positive oil shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number hal-00798037.

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Date of creation: 07 Mar 2013
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00798037

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  1. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Thanh Huong Dinh, 2010. "Time-varying Predictability in Crude Oil Markets: The Case of GCC Countries," Working Papers hal-00507822, HAL.
  2. Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2005. "Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 65-83, February.
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  13. Breitung, Jorg, 2001. "Rank Tests for Nonlinear Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 331-40, July.
  14. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Jouini, Jamel & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "On the impacts of oil price fluctuations on European equity markets: Volatility spillover and hedging effectiveness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 611-617.
  15. El-Sharif, Idris & Brown, Dick & Burton, Bruce & Nixon, Bill & Russell, Alex, 2005. "Evidence on the nature and extent of the relationship between oil prices and equity values in the UK," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 819-830, November.
  16. El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Jouini, Jamel & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Volatility spillovers between oil prices and stock sector returns: Implications for portfolio management," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1387-1405.
  17. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. " Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-91, June.
  18. Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2010. "Time-varying characteristics of cross-market linkages with empirical application to Gulf stock markets," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 57-70, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Jouini, Jamel, 2013. "Stock markets in GCC countries and global factors: A further investigation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 80-86.
  2. Jouini, Jamel, 2013. "Return and volatility interaction between oil prices and stock markets in Saudi Arabia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 1124-1144.

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