Oil prices and stock markets: what drives what in the Gulf Corporation Council countries?
AbstractIn the empirical literature, only few studies have focused on the relationship between oil prices and stock markets in net oil-importing countries. In net oil-exporting countries this relationship has not been widely researched. This paper implements the panel-data approach of Kónya (2006), which is based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country-specific bootstrap critical values to study the sensitivity of stock markets to oil prices in GCC (Gulf Corporation Council) countries. Using two different (weekly and monthly) datasets covering respectively the periods from 7 June 2005 to 21 October 2008, and from January 1996 to December 2007, we show strong statistical evidence that the causal relationship is consistently bi-directional for Saudi Arabia. Stock market price changes in the other GCC member countries do not Granger cause oil price changes, whereas oil price shocks Granger cause stock price changes. Therefore, investors in GCC stock markets should look at the changes in oil prices, whereas investors in oil markets should look at changes in the Saudi stock market.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp960.
Date of creation: 01 Jun 2009
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: 724 E. University Ave, Wyly Hall 1st Flr, Ann Arbor MI 48109
Phone: 734 763-5020
Fax: 734 763 5850
Web page: http://www.wdi.umich.edu
More information through EDIRC
GCC stock markets; oil prices;
Other versions of this item:
- Mohamed Arouri & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: What Drives What in the Gulf Corporation Council Countries," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 122, pages 41-56.
- Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Christophe Rault, 2010. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: What Drives what in the Gulf Corporation Council Countries?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2934, CESifo Group Munich.
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
- Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-04-04 (All new papers)
- NEP-ARA-2010-04-04 (MENA - Middle East & North Africa)
- NEP-ENE-2010-04-04 (Energy Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cunado, J. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2005.
"Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: evidence for some Asian countries,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 65-83, February.
- Juncal Cunado & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2004. "Oil Prices, Economic Activity and Inflation: Evidence for Some Asian Countries," Faculty Working Papers 06/04, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Basher, Syed A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2006.
"Oil price risk and emerging stock markets,"
Global Finance Journal,
Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 224-251, December.
- Marc Gronwald, 2008. "Large Oil Shocks and the US Economy: Infrequent Incidents with Large Effects," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 151-172.
- François Lescaroux & Valérie Mignon, 2008. "On the Influence of Oil Prices on Economic Activity and Other Macroeconomic and Financial Variables," Working Papers 2008-05, CEPII research center.
- Pierre Perron & Robert J. Shiller, 1984.
"Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power Versus Frequency of Observation,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
732, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Shiller, Robert J. & Perron, Pierre, 1985. "Testing the random walk hypothesis : Power versus frequency of observation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 381-386.
- Robert J. Shiller & Pierre Perron, 1985. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power versus Frequency of Observation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jörg Breitung & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2005.
"Unit Roots and Cointegration in Panels,"
IEPR Working Papers
05.32, Institute of Economic Policy Research (IEPR).
- Breitung, J. & Pesaran, M.H., 2005. "Unit Roots and Cointegration in Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0535, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Breitung, Jörg & Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Unit roots and cointegration in panels," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,42, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
- Joerg Breitung & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2005. "Unit Roots and Cointegration in Panels," CESifo Working Paper Series 1565, CESifo Group Munich.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1993.
"Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1047, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Phillips, Peter C B, 1995. "Fully Modified Least Squares and Vector Autoregression," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(5), pages 1023-78, September.
- Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2005.
"Oil Prices, Inflation and Interest Rates in a Structural Cointegrated VAR Model for the G-7 Countries,"
2005.101, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2008. "Oil prices, inflation and interest rates in a structural cointegrated VAR model for the G-7 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 856-888, May.
- Lutz Kilian, 2008.
"Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
- Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
- Naceur, Samy Ben & Ghazouani, Samir, 2007. "Stock markets, banks, and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the MENA region," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 297-315, June.
- Brown, Stephen P. A. & Yucel, Mine K., 2002.
"Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretative survey,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 193-208.
- Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 2001. "Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretive survey," Working Papers 0102, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 511-532, September.
- Lardic, Sandrine & Mignon, Valerie, 2006. "The impact of oil prices on GDP in European countries: An empirical investigation based on asymmetric cointegration," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(18), pages 3910-3915, December.
- Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Choi, Kyongwook, 2006. "Behavior of GCC stock markets and impacts of US oil and financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 22-44, March.
- Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. " Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-91, June.
- Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
- El-Sharif, Idris & Brown, Dick & Burton, Bruce & Nixon, Bill & Russell, Alex, 2005. "Evidence on the nature and extent of the relationship between oil prices and equity values in the UK," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 819-830, November.
- Neaime Simon, 2005. "Financial Market Integration and Macroeconomic Volatility in the MENA Region: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 3(3), pages 59-83, December.
- Peter Baláž & Andrej Londarev, 2006. "Oil and its position in the process of globalization of the world economy," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2006(4), pages 508-528.
- Shawkat Hammoudeh & Eisa Aleisa, 2004. "Dynamic Relationships among GCC Stock Markets and Nymex Oil Futures," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(2), pages 250-269, 04.
- Konya, Laszlo, 2006. "Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 978-992, December.
- Lardic, Sandrine & Mignon, Valérie, 2008. "Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 847-855, May.
- Mohamed El Hedi Arouri & Duc Khuong Nguyen & Thanh Huong Dinh, 2010.
"Time-varying Predictability in Crude Oil Markets: The Case of GCC Countries,"
- El Hedi Arouri, Mohamed & Huong Dinh, Thanh & Khuong Nguyen, Duc, 2010. "Time-varying predictability in crude-oil markets: the case of GCC countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4371-4380, August.
- Fayyad, Abdallah & Daly, Kevin, 2011. "The impact of oil price shocks on stock market returns: Comparing GCC countries with the UK and USA," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 61-78, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laurie Gendron).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.