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Energy prices and aggregate economic activity: an interpretive survey

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Author Info
Stephen P. A. Brown
Mine K. Yücel

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Abstract

In this paper, we survey the theory and evidence linking fluctuations in energy prices to aggregate economic activity. We then briefly examine the implications of this research for both monetary policy and energy policy in response to oil price shocks. Research seems to provide relatively reliable guidance for monetary policy. Because the precise channels through which oil price shocks affect economic activity are only partially known, however, research offers less guidance about how energy policy should cope with oil price shocks.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in its series Working Papers with number 0102.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:0102

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Keywords: Energy policy ; Monetary policy ; Petroleum industry and trade;

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Loungani, Prakash, 1986. "Oil Price Shocks and the Dispersion Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(3), pages 536-39, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Davis, Steven J. & Haltiwanger, John, 2001. "Sectoral job creation and destruction responses to oil price changes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 465-512, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Burbidge, John & Harrison, Alan, 1984. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 459-84, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Darby, Michael R, 1982. "The Price of Oil and World Inflation and Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(4), pages 738-51, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. James Tobin, 1980. "Stabilization Policy Ten Years After," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1980-1), pages 19-90. [Downloadable!]
  7. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Stephen P.A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 1995. "Energy prices and state economic performance," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 13-23. [Downloadable!]
  9. Tatom, John A., 1988. "Are the macroeconomic effects of oil-price changes symmetric?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 325-368, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Carruth, A.A. & Hooker, M.A. & Oswald, A.J., 1998. "Unemployment Equilibria and Input Prices: Theory and Evidence from the United States," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 496, University of Warwick, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. James L. Pierce & Jared J. Enzler, 1974. "The Effects of External Inflationary Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 5(1974-1), pages 13-62. [Downloadable!]
  13. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Steven J. Davis & Prakash Loungani & Ramamohan Mahidhara, 1997. "Regional labor fluctuations: oil shocks, military spending, and other driving forces," International Finance Discussion Papers 578, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  16. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Javier F. Mory, 1993. "Oil Prices and Economic Activity: Is the Relationship Symmetric?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 14(4), pages 151-162.
  18. Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine Yücel, 1998. "Crude oil and gasoline prices: an asymmetric relationship?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q 1, pages 2-11. [Downloadable!]
  19. Knut Anton Mork & Oystein Olsen & Hans Terje Mysen, 1994. "Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 15(4), pages 19-36.
  20. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-44, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Borenstein, Severin & Cameron, A Colin & Gilbert, Richard, 1997. "Do Gasoline Prices Respond Asymmetrically to Crude Oil Price Changes?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(1), pages 305-39, February.
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  22. Robert H. Rasche & John A. Tatom, 1977. "The effects of the new energy regime on economic capacity, production, and prices," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 2-12. [Downloadable!]
  23. Evan F. Koenig, 1995. "Optimal monetary policy in an economy with sticky nominal wages," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 24-31. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Marcelo Sánchez, 2008. "Oil shocks and endogenous markups - results from an estimated euro area DSGE model," Working Paper Series 860, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  2. Shimon Awerbuch & Raphael Sauter, 2005. "Exploiting the Oil-GDP Effect to Support Renewables Deployment," SPRU Electronic Working Paper Series 129, University of Sussex, SPRU - Science and Technology Policy Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei. [Downloadable!]
  4. Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel & John Thompson, 2003. "Business cycles: the role of energy prices," Working Papers 03-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  5. Tang, Weiqi & Wu, Libo & Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2009. "Oil price shocks and their short- and long-term effects on the Chinese economy," MPRA Paper 14703, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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