Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?
AbstractThe paper proposes a new measure of exogenous oil supply shocks. The timing, the magnitude, and the sign of this measure may differ greatly from current state-of-the-art estimates. It is shown that only a small fraction of the observed oil price increases during oil crisis periods can be attributed to exogenous oil production disruptions. Exogenous oil supply shocks cause a sharp drop of U.S. real GDP growth after five quarters rather than an immediate and sustained reduction in economic growth and a spike in CPI inflation after three quarters. Overall, exogenous oil supply shocks made remarkably little difference for the evolution of the U.S. economy since the 1970s, although they did matter for some historical episodes. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by MIT Press in its journal The Review of Economics and Statistics.
Volume (Year): 90 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
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Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/
Other versions of this item:
- Kilian, Lutz, 2005. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much do they Matter for the US Economy?," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 5131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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