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On the influence of oil prices on stock markets: Evidence from panel analysis in GCC countries

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  • Christophe Rault
  • Mohamed El Hedi AROURI

Abstract

This paper implements recent bootstrap panel cointegration techniques and Seemingly Unrelated regression (SUR) methods to investigate the existence of a long-run relationship between oil prices and Gulf Corporation Countries (GCC) stock markets. Since GCC countries are major world energy market players, their stock markets are likely to be susceptible to oil price shocks. Using two different (weekly and monthly) datasets covering respectively the periods from 7 June 2005 to 21 October 2008, and from January 1996 to December 2007, our investigation shows that there is evidence for cointegration of oil prices and stock markets in GCC countries, while the SUR results indicate that oil price increases have a positive impact on stock prices, except in Saudi Arabia.

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  • Christophe Rault & Mohamed El Hedi AROURI, 2009. "On the influence of oil prices on stock markets: Evidence from panel analysis in GCC countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp961, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2009-961
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    4. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Yoon, Kyung Hwan, 2015. "The impact of oil price shocks on the stock market return and volatility relationship," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 41-54.
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    9. Chibueze E. Onyeke & Ifeoma Nwakoby & Josaphat U. J. Onwumere & Ifeoma Ihegboro & Chidiebere Nnamani, 2020. "Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Sectoral Returns in Nigeria Stock Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 208-215.
    10. Tahsin Saadi Sedik & Mr. Oral Williams, 2011. "Global and Regional Spillovers to GCC Equity Markets," IMF Working Papers 2011/138, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Khalid M. Kisswani & Mohammad I. Elian, 2017. "Do Oil Prices Affect Kuwait Sectoral Stock Prices? Non-Linear Cointegration Evidence," Working Papers 1141, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 2003.
    12. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Yoon, Kyung Hwan, 2015. "Time-varying effect of oil market shocks on the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 150-163.
    13. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Zeng, Jhih-Hong, 2011. "The impact of oil price shocks on stock market activities: Asymmetric effect with quantile regression," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 81(9), pages 1910-1920.
    14. Durga Prasad Samontaray & Sultan Nugali & Bokkasam Sasidhar, 2014. "A Study of the Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Market: Saudi Perspective," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(4), pages 120-127, October.
    15. Meysam Azizi Kouchaksaraei & Hamed Movahedizadeh & Hoda Mohammadalikhani, 2016. "Determinant of the Relationship between Natural Gas Prices and Leading Natural Gas Countries¡¯ Stock Exchange," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(4), pages 246-253, April.
    16. Michael Funke & Marc Gronwald, 2009. "A Convex Hull Approach to Counterfactual Analysis of Trade Openness and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 2692, CESifo.
    17. Mert URAL, 2016. "Modelling Crude Oil Price Volatility and the Effects of Global Financial Crisis," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 24(29).
    18. Tarek Bouazizi & Fatma Mrad & Arafet Hamida & Sawsen Nafti, 2022. "Effects of Conditional Oil Volatility on Exchange Rate and Stock Markets Returns," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(2), pages 53-71, March.
    19. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Renatas Kizys, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market volatility: evidence from European data," Working Papers 161, Bank of Greece.
    20. Atanu Ghoshray and Tatiana Trifonova, 2014. "Dynamic Adjustment of Crude Oil Price Spreads," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
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    Keywords

    GCC stock markets; oil prices; panel cointegration analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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